One of the most important things when looking at the upcoming drilling campaign for AVZ is the climate in the DRC. What we saw with the last drilling campaign totalling 7 holes was a delay from all accounts because of a broken drilling rig.
This has then set the next drilling campaign back into what is considered the wettest period for the Manono area. I know many are believing that if you put down the pads to drill then you will be able to in any weather. This may be the case to some extent but given that AVZ raised $13 million and will no doubt embark on an aggressive drilling campaign it is virtually impossible to think this has occurred.
So I started looking at the forecasted rainfall for the Manono region in the DRC to start with
View attachment 752859
https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-precipitation-Rainfall,Manono,Congo-Kinshasa
As you can see we have just gone through the 4 driest months of the year and have only drilled 7 holes. I am somewhat shocked that management didn't expedite the process and start drilling already. Before anyone says they have they would of told the market because it is price sensitive news.
Secondly I decided to look at the next 30 days as shown below. You can see a huge amount of rain and lightening in the Manono region itself. This will make it virtually impossible to get drill rigs to and around site to drill.
View attachment 752850
I like many others expected a JORC in January 2018 as described in the company presentation. Given that is now only 3 months away, they haven't started drilling, and its incredibly bad weather in Manono I assume that the January JORC may be pushed back to late Feb, even March.
If the last set of drill results and timing were anything to go by then I think we are install for some delays in the future as well.
How will this impact the shareprice? Personally I think it can only be negative and may allow a low ball offer to take over AVZ as holders get bored with a potential lack of news. Or it may be that the Chinese sit on the sidelines and wait and wait and wait for the JORC and drilling campaign results all to comeback.
I guess only time will tell
.
(20min delay)