QUOTING the bird:1) LANI is flying though clinical trials. The...

QUOTING the bird:
1) LANI is flying though clinical trials. The Japanese are pushing this one though and it looks to be an awesome drug, both as a preventative and treatment. The market is probably somewhere like 1bn p.a.

Facts (Source of information – page 3 of BTA’s announcement)
The Phase III work currently in trial is only the FIRST step. The SECOND step is to prepare registration documentation. Only then can the company apply for approval from the Japanese health authorities.

ASSUMING that the product successfully complete the process in Japan, to market it elsewhere the whole lengthy trial processes and procedures HAVE TO BE REPEATED which most likely could TAKE YEARS.

Quote bird:
2) Relenza is making breakthoughs in sales. Both stockpiling markets and seasonal markets have recently indicated Relenza is the drug of choice. We should get at least one full round of re-stockpiling orders globally along with some good years of sales in the seasonal markets now GSK are "free" from legal obstructions and Tamiflu problems.

FACTS (Refer to BTA half year accounts):
Relenza royalties FELL 77% to $3.8 million from $16.5 million.

BTA has 1 UK order. When asked to provide timelines for the UK order, Peter Cook in a nutshell said he has NO INFORMATION.
Cook SAID the UK government indicated its intention to double the NI stockpile 18 months ago. The contracts weren’t awarded until January and THESE PROTRACTED CYCLE TIMES make it difficult for Cook to estimate timelines.
Peter Cook who said “QUOTE: Beyond the orders for Relenza GSK has already taken, it’s difficult to provide further comment on our revenue outlook”. (Source of information: page 2 of BTA announcement)
The birds seem to know more about future sales than Peter Cook. LOL!!

There are clear evidences GSK has to be dragged out of bed to supply Relenza. While being sued, GSK was forced to increase supplies to tens of millions courses for the pandemic stockpiling. After the cooked cozy deal, shockingly GSK could only supply 0.4million courses in Feb and 0.6million courses in Mar to Japan.

Read these links why GSK may be the biggest obstructions to Relenza sales:
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=832275&msgid=4609927
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=819992&msgid=4543615
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2009-02/06/content_7450505.htm

3) Pipeline is looking great. Three drugs moving ahead, all of which seems to be completely priced out. HRV phase II has been paid for and results due mid-year. Others are also set to make announcements this year.

The birds had been making this assertion and NOT ABLE TO BACK IT UP. From the half year accounts, it is impossible to tell whether the HRV costs had been incurred. Suffice to say such trials usually run into tens of millions and do not seem to have been taken up in the accounts

4) Financial position looks strong. Cash and royalties looks to make this company financially secure, at least till the pipeline matures and perhaps even take on new programs. A buy back is also possible.

Underlying Revenue for the half-year was $10.5 million DOWN 60 percent, reflecting the fall in Relenza royalties to $3.8 million from $16.5 million and the ZERO milestone payment.

Strip away the profit from litigation, Biota actually made an underlying LOSS of $5.536m in the half year.

Chanting buybacks are typical bird mantra. Figuratively speaking Biota had a company shares buyback by stealth for Peter Cook’s LTIOs. For details read this link:
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=824878&msgid=4574691