Very much appreciate you putting all that together JSS.
I know it would have taken many hours.
I know asking this will likely double the work load, but... I am slowly, painfully coming to the conclusion that AISC is useful, but only to a point. As non-sustaining capex literally eats away 100% of any free cash flow from many of the companies you have included.
I wonder if you could also look at including AIC, particularly over a 12 month period, yet even then, it's hard to gauge whether non-sustaining will stay high (though the longer the mine life the company has provided the market, the easier it is).
For example GOR and WAF I follow closely (I only hold WAF), have long mine lives and relatively low non-sustaining capex over their 10+ years, meaning AIC will on average, be well below similar producers like say, RMS/SLR/WGX. For example, WGX had a great AISC, yet, once you include non-sustaining, they actually made like $500,000 for the quarter! And this has been the same outcome for almost 2 years!
As the really important margin, I feel is what is left over from AIC. Many (perhaps almost all?) Australian producers sit around $2000 AUD for AIC (if you average over the year). I assume this is perhaps similar for Canada/US too (would be interested to hear from others who follow them more closely than I).
Companies rarely seem to include the AIC in their quarterlies, some do... I think all should. Even when the numbers are bad (because, they are bad!). For example, GCY who have had an excellent 12 months on a AISC basis, likely have a AIC around $1600-1700 AUD, which is actually, really good, as compared to many. Another example, RMS just added $9m for the March Q. Yet... their AISC was AUD $1370.... after producing 66k ounces. Yes, they paid $20m in tax, but.. also spent $20m on non-sustaining, or... another $303 per ounce.
I know that many would say that AIC is not useful, because it is much more bumpy, as non-sustaining does indeed vary significantly for every company every year, BUT, it makes is far easier to gauge if a company is entering a heavier spending period, or... finishing etc.
In any case, I have tried hard to look at companies from a short, medium and long term perspective, which is challenging, when you have companies like SLR, that barely even provide a 3 year guidance.... i.e. The market pays a premium for GOR, because free cash flow can actually be calculated.
Not sure I can add much else to the discussion. For context, my holdings (a couple are not producers... and DEG is large, because... I got very lucky) in order of size are, WAF RMS PRU DEG GCY CAI CMM RVR OBM WGX MGV (some other small free carries).
I am hopeful I have a spread, weighted to producers, for the coming up cycle.
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