marathon commencement date?, page-3

More from GMP (15/09/11) on Marathon starting up...

"Marathon Oil discussed in its August 9th presentation a number of estimates increases regarding their
Eagle Ford play, including (and most importantly) the expected EUR?s per well. Marathon is now estimating
EUR?s per well at 300-1,000 mboe versus their June estimate of 300-840 mboe. Marathon is talking about
Condensate EUR?s of 965,000 boe/well, which is 29% ahead of AEF?s estimate of 748,000 boe. On the
Volatile oil window Marathon is calling for EUR?s of 645,000 boe/well or 38% higher than the 468,000 boe
that AEF is using. On the Black oil window the Marathon EUR?s are 68% higher versus AEF with wells set
to produce 445,000 boe, versus 265,000 boe. Marathon is also talking about ?further upside? from 80 acre
development and potential down spacing. This is the first mention from them about more aggressive
downspacing on the play. Marathon is also talking about having 9 rigs running by year-end 2011 and
growing to 22 rigs by year-end 2012. We would expect a disproportional number for these rigs to be
focused on the Sugarkane Field (with Aurora) in the sweet spot. Even before Marathon has had a chance to
get its boots dirty in the field they are already increasing their estimates of the size of the potential on the
Hilcorp lands that they just purchased in the Eagle Ford play. We view this as all positive for Aurora as they
have reserve bookings at a significant discount to what Marathon and others in the area are now indicating.
We expect to see a significant reserve bump come year-end for AEF based on not only the new well activity
but an incremental shift up in the type curves."