Dime, I have had a look at the Chief Geologist's presentation at...

Dime, I have had a look at the Chief Geologist's presentation at the AGM as you suggest, and I particularly had a look at the core photos. I am not a geo, but have been around exploration a long time, much of which has been in relation to the Gawler & Curnamona cratons. My comment to you is not to expect significant Cu/Au values from those core samples. They may well be anomalous, but certainly nowhere near the ore grade of 3% Cu, 1 g/t Au that they suggest in their NPV numbers on the last slide.

In fact, that last slide shows the problem with depth. They say that the NPV at 3% is $230m, and they point out how sensitive the NPV is to grade, saying that at 3.5% Cu the NPV would be $318m. Problem is, it is sensitive the other way. A simple graph shows that at 2% Cu the NPV will be zero. In fact, I suggest that inclusion of this slide is more than a little misleading. It suggests that they are expecting grades of 3% & 1 g/t Au, but they have provided NO evidence yet that they have anything like those grades. Certainly the core photos do not indicate grades like that.

That is not to say that they might not hit reasonable grade further down. Just that there is no evidence yet that they have grade.

Following is a post that I put on Sharescene the other day that discussess some of the issues as I see it.

'Exploring for IOCG deposits in the Gawler and Curnamona Craton has its complexities. Since the discovery of Olympic Dam in 1975-1977, many holes have been drilled into coincident (or closely nearby) magnetic and gravity anomalies. The only significant discovery so far other than Olympic Dam is Prominent Hill.

The discovery record of both Olympic Dam and Prominent Hill tells us a lot.

1. The mineralised systems are very complex.
2. Haematitic brecciation is usually a part of the mineralising system, but may not itself be mineralised.
3. Holes that encounter haematitic brecciation with only geochemical grades of Cu, Au etc deserve follow up. Further holes are needed to get vectors going, and to get a better understanding of the complexities of the system. (See recent PTS announcement)
4. It can take a lot of drill-holes to develop an understanding of the system, and to define ore-grade mineralisation. Hole 1 at Olympic Dam clipped the edge of the system, but it took a further 16 holes before ore grade mineralisation was intersected in Holes 17, 18, and 19. The Prominent Hill discovery hole was the first hole in the Minotaur/BHP et al JV program, but it was far from the first hole into that system.

There are long odds against that the TAS hole has encountered ore grade mineralisation, although it can happen. The high probability is that the haematitic breccia system encountered will have anomalous, but not ore grade values of Cu, Au etc.

Tasman's announcement of 23 Nov said "Weak sulphide mineralisation, consisting of pyrite and lesser chalcopyrite (overall estimated at less than one percent sulphides) was intersected between 558m and 587m, and 689m and 710m depth and is currently continuing." Lets say "pyrite and lesser chalcopyrite" means two thirds pyrite, one third chalcopyrite. That means that perhaps the sulphides may be 0.3% chalcopyrite, which would be 0.1% Cu. Anomalous, but not ore grade.

The announcement of 25 Nov made no reference to sulphides.

Another factor of course is depth. It may be that the current hole may encounter ore grade sulphides, but at a depth of 800m or 900m. While interesting, that outcome dictates a long and very costly program to development, if it can be developed at all. The costs of drilling out and developing deep seated mineralisation increase exponentially with each additional hundred metres. Most mines accessing really deep mineralisation do so by incrementally deepening a mine that started near surface eg Mt Isa.

I think that I will wait and see what happens with the grades from this hole. That is not to say that the prospect is not a very good one that deserves follow up, and hopefully TAS can raise the funds to continue the program.'