marc faber on australian property bubble, page-58

  1. 3,062 Posts.
    not retired ,never wish to retire and yes i am up at 3-00am
    most days researching before work and after work,the clear picture i have of the aus r/e is simple it depends a great deal on the area you live in,it also depends on what you buy in which part of the economic cycle,and economic cycles at present are represented by a two speed economy,they accelerate at different rates and by the same token decelerate
    at different rates.

    so where i live is really a pretty boring part of the world but the really big advantage is its affordability in a mature area with all the infrastructure you could reasonably need.

    today i was chatting with a long tern acquaintance ,a professional real estate investor,who somewhat ironically shares many of the negative views expressed on this forum,the key issues for this investor are yield plus a discounted property and has recently purchased a property ,distressed sale at approx a 15% discount,it served the vendor well and fitted the required investment criteria with a return of 6%.

    although this investor is clearly aligned with 3.5-4 times average income model ,also is accepting that it is unrealistic in the face of statutory charges for development ,plus associated building costs not to mention
    the ongoing demand against supply------over a 25 year period
    this investor has built a diverse and impressive portfolio,but sold about a third of it in 2004 the cash yield on funds has been impressive as well, actually better than the r/e return for the sold property---now ready to buy more if the right opportunity presents.

    naturally this opportunity is anticipated from financial distress,and there are many others just like this person waiting for the opportunity to spend their cash on an investment property,but invariably they are looking for a substantial discount to current values.

    cash is king,and their waiting on the sidelines,waiting for opportunity with the same root cause------financial distress
 
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