Apologies, spotted a couple of points where small errors were made:
- IPL unwinds over 4 months, not 4 quarters :
- Deferred Income unwind related to MQ only included - Take or Pay already included in ordinary runrate of prior periods which NT sales are modeled. Partially offsets IPL unwind increase.
Updated commentary below:
- Cash receipts of c. $20.1m : This includes NT sales of $9.0m, take or pay of $5.4m and NGP contribution of $7.7m ($11.6m revenue less $3.9m unwind of liabilities). Projected revenue would be $20.1m + $5.9m = $26.0m
- Production costs increasing by $3.2m, implies c. $1.50 per GJ marginal costs of production.
- Repayment of borrowings of $3.9m, as indicated in the quarterly.
- Net cash outflow of c. $8.1m in the quarter. Adjusting for the large PPE investment of $10.9m, adding back debt principal repayments of $5.9m (MQ $2.2m, IPL $3.8m) and adding back deferred income unwind, it indicates a normalised net debt reduction of $10.8m for the q1. June, September and December quarters would be lower due to no take or pay revenue.
Cash looks tight but we do have $7.5m of undrawn facility at Dec-18, so should be fairly comfortable.
Also included implied net debt reduction over remainder of CY19 given Company guidance of c. $20m reduction in net debt. Not sure if they were including IPL prepaid gas (debt-like) or whether they were normalising this for the $10.8m of PPE payments...or whether it's purely net cash/debt per the financial statements at Dec-18 movement to Dec-19. Hopefully the latter....
Interested in comments - obviously assumes steady run rate of revenue whereas in effect, it was ramping in the period and receipts would be delayed. I wouldn't be surprised if it was slightly lower below...but would be pleasantly surprised if higher considering I have used my top end ex-field price of $5.50 GJ (IMO).
