march 2008 quarter disappoints, page-3

See the article on forecast oil prices (link below). Thanks to Melinvest over on the BPT thread.

IMHO, the article missed the fifth reason: speculative money (as distinct from a weak US$) in the commodity. While the "trend is your friend" the money will go in but as soon as the trend breaks, that spec money will coming out just as quick.

Wouldn't bet my house on the third last paragraph! In the case of oil, producer share prices do not always outperform their underlying commodity price.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp...1F16D37F8CED2CA

Cheers

P.S. Are we finally seeing the "paradigm shift" in oil prices from the brokers, albeit it is slow and they are definitely behind the curve.

P.P.S. I am sure you are like me in thinking that the upside in the share price comes from commercialisation of its gas reserves (and the associated liquids) not from an increasing oil price visa via its existing 2P reserves.