March quarter FA

I don't like creating new threads, but couldn't find any recent, relevant one to tack this onto.

The more I look at RVR since production commenced, the more surprised I am at the low expectations for the upcoming quarterly report.

The only reported downside has been a 5-6 day mine shutdown (Thu 1 Mar - Tue 6 Mar) and production being affected by heavy rains and associated power outages over the 2 months prior (Jan - Feb). Certainly not good, but vague enough to take a closer look at:



There was only one big downpour in January (81.6 mm on Jan 16th). February had three substantial (56.0, 42.0 & 35.6 mm) and three moderate (15.8, 13.0 & 13.0 mm) downpours, but overall twice as much rain as Jan. March shouldn't impact the March quarter receipts - due to the ~30+ day payment terms - but had one substantial (73.8 mm on Mar 1st - i.e. shutdown) and three moderate (25.0, 19.4 & 14.4 mm) downpours.

The monthly totals were: Oct-68.4 mm, Nov-25.8 mm, Dec-13.0 mm, Jan-105.6 mm, Feb-206.4 mm, Mar-160.5 mm.

The production/delivery timeline to date has been:
- 8/09/17 Production of copper, lead & zinc commences
- 27/09/17 Thalanga fully ramped-up and exceeding planned throughput
- 10/10/17 First zinc concentrate delivery (w/ first lead concentrate delivery to follow shortly)
- 9/11/17 First payment received from zinc concentrate
- 31/12/17 Commercial production declared
- 25/01/18 First mention of first copper concentrate delivery (no exact date given, but was scheduled for Jan 2018)

The December quarterly included receipts of A$16.9m and operating cash flow of A$6.8m. This presumably only included zinc & lead concentrate deliveries for October and November (2 months).

The upcoming report will include zinc & lead concentrate for December to February (3 months) and copper concentrate for perhaps half-January and February (1.5 months).

Average LME spot cash prices relevant to the above:
- Zinc A$4,224/t for Oct-Nov and A$4,335 for Dec-Feb (now A$4,196)
- Lead A$3,225/t for Oct-Nov and A$3,271 for Dec-Feb (now A$3,072)
- Copper A$8,900/t for Jan-Feb (now A$8,730)

Full price table:


Even if production was halted for half of February, receipts should be considerably higher than the previous quarter, which surprised us all (or at least me) with RVR's maiden profit.