First go at this exercise, maybe second and last go in first week of April.
I really am of the opinion that these guys are on fire this quarter with their production as evidenced by the amount of product I believe they have shipped/will ship by 31Mar.
I believe the last two upgrades have been a game changer that is already reflected in this quarter's production figures. It is important to note towards the end of the announcement regarding the rougher upgrade on 21st Feb that they stated the mining cannons have each been operating at the rate of 4mtpa and so with three operating for the whole quarter means that they're mining at the rate of 12mtpa and they were due to bring another cannon online during the quarter.
I have used the throughput rate of 12mtpa this quarter and lifted that figure to 13.5mtpa for the following four quarters on my cashflow schedule.
My shipping schedule for this quarter shows that they will probably ship around 100kt of concentrate. The summary figures below reflect a massive upgrade to the guidance they have so far given and hopefully they will upgrade it shortly.
Another highlight(for me) is that I believe they have shipped the remaining 19kt conc that they owe China Minmetals being the balance of a Forward sale completed in Nov18 when they received the net proceeds from this concentrate less payability and treatment charges. This reduces to zero one of their payables 'Deferred proceeds' that I estimate will be in the Dec19 half year accounts at $22.5mil.
So my summary figures are:
Concentrate produced/shipped 100kt
Grade 49.1%
Metal produced 49,100kt (their guidance 29,000 to 35,000kt)
C1 costs 72c/lb (their guidance 85c to 95c/lb)
Cash at bank 31Mar $34mil
Concentrate/Debtors 31Mar $10.5mil
I know what theskeptic & Vector will think of these outrageous figures which I'm not betting the house on but have to have faith in my shipping schedule.
