March Top 20, page-37

tutes - its a shame that Gav did not take the opportunity to answer your question and, instead, just served you up a plate of obfuscating generalities.

And silly comments like "Contrarians only need to get proven right once and their money is made...but the herd gets to be right every single day...until the last day...and then they were wrong all along".

It is just part of his polemic suggesting that 'contrarians' (like him) have a superior grasp of reality than the alleged 'herd'.

Of course, it is just as likely that the contrarian may never 'get proven right' (or be 'right' only a small percentage of the time) just as it is possible for the herd to 'be right every single day', including on and after the 'last day'. The trick is to know when to be a contrarian and when to go with the herd and when to cross over. Only time will tell with this one, as with every investment, but imo, now is not the time to be aggressively contrarian with PEN - unless you don't mind incurring a substantial opportunity cost.

My view on the 1.7c price is all about supply and demand. There just isn't enough demand at the moment to sustain a substantial increase in the U price or provide many contracting opportunities. In the last several years, S has increased significantly whilst D has remained fairly flat. Hence the problem. It is also my understanding that Japan has continued buying through the outage period due to contract obligations and that China has it s U needs (for both existing and new reactors) covered until 2021. So there are still quite a few years to go before a sustained increase in U demand emerges - even with the Chinese build and even if Japan switches some reactors back on.

Of course, there will be a P&D opportunity when the first Japanese reactor is turned on (relief rally) but it will most likely be short-lived as it was with the earlier decisions to restart rectors.

The other possibility for kicking the price along is something corporate - something that the bull-boys may have an inkling of. I still think there was a reason for extending the performance shares, but I don't know whether it has something to do with one or more of the top shareholders, something from left field (like a Chinese company play) or something else.

The one thing I am pretty certain about is that any near-term substantial SP increase will be due to corporate activity at the enterprise level not improvements at the industry level (i.e significant increase in demand for U). That will come later - 2018/19+.