If you read the update ann carefully, you may notice that rest of 7 shipment will effect final result. The main revenue and cost is from shipment, so i can understand that gap between 23.5M and 30M is profit for those 7 shipment. Becasue all 1 jan to 8 June revenue and cost have been finalised so they only need to forecast rest of 7 shipment. Now i can guess that average one shipment profit is around 1 M.
Now let us talk about those 7 shipment. What i know is 5 shipment :
Shearer 22,000 cattle from brazil to Turkey (still loading at brazil,so 90% chance finish before 30 june)
Ute 5,000 cattle from Townsville to Indonesia (Will be arrived indo in 5 days then back to australia to reload ,so 100% chance finish first shipment, 0% finish second shipment,but may load cattle before 30 june and recognised part of revenue)
Swagman 6,000 cattle from brazil to somewhere, prepare loading, so 90% chance finish before 30 June
Outback still at singapore,so have no idea if back to Australia to load cattle, but if does, 50% chance finish before 30 june
Last one i know is Drover, backing to Australia now and will arrive Australia at 18 June, so 80% chance finish it before 30 june and 20% chance finish part.)
One more may be Meat cargo or charterer shipment, i cannot track it, so may be 50% chance to finish.
So, i guess 75% of seven shipments will be competed in this financial year. So, 75%*6.5+23=27.8M
27.8M is 7C EPS.
WLD Price at posting:
48.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
