What are peoples thoughts on current/ future market cap and the impact of dbct/sparcs?
My current thinking is: BBI=6c Market Cap=circa $150mil NAV=circa $1.3bil shares outstandind=2.5bil
If we add $800mil to NAV for positive 100% sale of DBCT, we get
New NAV circa $2.1bil.
We can then add say, 1.25bil new shares for sparcs conversion. Just a ballpark figure and depends if 100% convert.
So post dbct/sparcs, we have: BBI=6c Market Cap=circa $225mil Nav=$2.1bil shares=3.75bil
The fundamentals wouldnt change much, RE: discount to NAV. In both cases we would be trading at about 10% of NAV
So i dont fear sparcs conversion, provided dbct sells. and if anything there is more upside than downside, ie if less than 100% convert or the sp is higher prior to conversion.
If BBI can then remove fear of BEPPA dilution, with a strong statement of intention(if we cant fund beppa from 2012 cashflows, we intend to sell more assets if/when required to fund beppa), and combined with a lower corporate debt(less risk) i can see BBI doubling to 12c and market cap circa $450mil.
increase in market cap get BBI re-instated into indexes and funds will be forced to buy into BBI to maintain correct weighting, this will add stability to sp, and help if we do a cap raising.
BBI@12c and MarketCap $450mil and NAV $2.1bil, results in sp being about 20% of NAV, still plenty of upside longterm provided Beppa dont convert/dilute early.
Apart from DBCT, most assets are newer acquisitions and will struggle to sell materially above book value, and when compared with cash flow generated, they are probably better left unsold until the market improves.
DBCT also has the added benefit of significant expansion having added to its value. The market(and banks???) understand the importance of DBCT and also know that the other assets (excluding NGPL) are a hard sell. So a hefty discount to NAV is warranted.
But 80% (@12c)discount is too much, once its becomes clearer the direction BBI intends to take regarding Beppa/cap raisings it is clear BBI has POTENTIAL to trade significantly higher 24c is still only circa 45% of NAV.
After the $900mil writedowns i believe the new nav to be reliable and achievable in a methodical sale process. so the above calculations should hold true, and the equation will improve as the economy improves particularly europe.
its easy to do additional calculations to factor in new shares for beppa dilution now, or a cap raising, ive done various scenarios in a spreadsheet.
but for me, BBI must concentrate on DBCT sale, convert as many sparcs as requested, then just trade for awhile to allow sp to close in on NAV. By the time the discount to NAV is getting smaller, there will be new nav from upgraded book values from european assets.
HOPEFULLY by 2012, difference of sp and NAV will be minimal, and Bepaa can convert if no alternative can be found.
Prediction: BBI@10-12c (3-6months) BBI@24-30c (15months), still a hefty discount due to beppa dilution potential. if beppa dilutes the discount to nav is gone, so the sp reflects that.
the sp will then be held back until beppa are dealt with.
BBI Price at posting:
5.9¢ Sentiment: LT Sell Disclosure: Held
