market cap and nav, page-5

i know most people disagree with my thoughts regarding beppa not requiring converion, and a cap raising not being required, and im even more sure that no Beppa holder would currently agree to 1.78xBBI conversion. So my idea is purely a dream, but shows that if BBI management and holders are patient and dont panic, we can get through this wether we convert beppa or not.

the interesting part of my plan is, a lower NAV=higher conversion ratio. eg

nav = 80c, beppa=1.25BBI for 0 dilution effect in conversion.

nav=56c, beppa=1.78BBI current scenario, OR

nav=40c, beppa=2.5BBI for 0 dilution effect in conversion.


So if nav falls further to say 40c, perhaps from issue of new shares at 20c, beppa can now be converted for 2.5BBI.

if we chose to convert at 56c but no cap raising = 1.78xbbi.

if we wait until 2012, we can ASSUME lower interest rates as our risk profile improves, lets say we pay interest + 200mil principle/year. still 2.5years to go, means increase in nav of $500mil. Add to that a re-rating up of euroports stake and PD Ports over 2.5years of same $500mil. Suddenly nav is $1bil higher, with 3.75bil shares on issue(beepa not converted). about 25c/share higher @new nav=80c in 2012. but now the ratio is much lower @1.25bbi.

but this is what we would expect. nav falling = lower sp = more bbi/beppa.

increased nav to say 80c, with an upward trend as debt reduces further in future years. sp will increase to circa 70c, and 1.25*0.70= 87.5c + cash component perhaps?

its hard to put my thoughts into words, its easier to represent in spreadsheet format, but hopoefully you get the rough idea.