Since the last Agm there have been quite a few estimates by posters on the value of Ags and I agree slugstock that earnings start in 10 months and will be about $35mpa.On a p/e of 8 it would seem that Ags should be trading about $1 plus minimum. Butif we start to build in some assumptions then we get some interesting scenarios that justify a higher price. Say the resource is proven up to 100m lb -- 150m lb -- say if quasar double production to 6m lb - say if ( as many predict ) the uranium price rises to more like US$100 - quasar could pay $750m for this resource and have a payback of about 4 years - so in my view they should get on with it before things get messy with another bidder or a vastly larger resource. However we can only guess at what Ian Gandel will take for this resource and my guess is about $3 per share equivalent. If there was someone out there prepared to pay that then it would be all over now. Again my guess is the Blues Bros are accummulating and warehousing - we have seen the colapse of the price along with all stocks in October ( Pdn $1.70 now $3.50 )capping about .40c and when that became unproductive because of too much buying interest the price has risen, but watch out for some dumping to shake out what they can on the way up - note the lack of buying interest today - though I think they would be dissappointed at the number of shares shaken out.When we get closer to Gandels price we will have an offer from Quasar and they will be holders at about 20%from the start. I don't think Ags will produce uranium - it will be all over by xmas. Good luck ! Just one long term holders thoughts -
AGS Price at posting:
51.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
