Using the number of shares outstanding from the report (
3.18 billion shares as of 2024 I asked chat GPT about future price. This was pain in the ass, because it is too complex for GPT and it freezes few times:
To estimate the potential target price of Peninsula Energy's stock based on future uranium prices and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10, we can use the financial and operational details provided in the 2024 annual report.
Key Data from the Report:
- Projected production: 1.48 million pounds (Mlbs) of U3O8 per year on average
- All-in cost (AIC): $50.27 per pound
- Contract prices:
- First 6 years: $67 per pound (average sales price).
- Last 4 years: $100 per pound (based on hypothetical contracts).
1. Revenue Calculation:
We assume an average annual production of 1.48 million pounds (Mlbs) of U3O8:
First 6 years (at $67 per pound):
Annual Revenue=1.48 Mlbs×67 $=99.16 million $ per year\text{Annual Revenue} = 1.48 \, \text{Mlbs} \times 67 \, \text{\$} = 99.16 \, \text{million \$ per year}Annual Revenue=1.48Mlbs×67$=99.16million $ per yearOver the 6-year period:
Total Revenue for 6 years=99.16 million $×6=594.96 million $\text{Total Revenue for 6 years} = 99.16 \, \text{million \$} \times 6 = 594.96 \, \text{million \$}Total Revenue for 6 years=99.16million $×6=594.96million $Last 4 years (at $100 per pound):
Annual Revenue=1.48 Mlbs×100 $=148 million $ per year\text{Annual Revenue} = 1.48 \, \text{Mlbs} \times 100 \, \text{\$} = 148 \, \text{million \$ per year}Annual Revenue=1.48Mlbs×100$=148million $ per yearOver the 4-year period:
Total Revenue for 4 years=148 million $×4=592 million $\text{Total Revenue for 4 years} = 148 \, \text{million \$} \times 4 = 592 \, \text{million \$}Total Revenue for 4 years=148million $×4=592million $Total Revenue for 10 years:
Total Revenue=594.96 million $+592 million $=1,186.96 million $\text{Total Revenue} = 594.96 \, \text{million \$} + 592 \, \text{million \$} = 1,186.96 \, \text{million \$}Total Revenue=594.96million $+592million $=1,186.96million $
2. Cost Calculation:
The All-In Cost (AIC) for production is $50.27 per pound:
Annual Production Cost=1.48 Mlbs×50.27 $=74.4 million $ per year\text{Annual Production Cost} = 1.48 \, \text{Mlbs} \times 50.27 \, \text{\$} = 74.4 \, \text{million \$ per year}Annual Production Cost=1.48Mlbs×50.27$=74.4million $ per yearOver the 10-year period:
Total Production Cost=74.4 million $×10=744 million $\text{Total Production Cost} = 74.4 \, \text{million \$} \times 10 = 744 \, \text{million \$}Total Production Cost=74.4million $×10=744million $3. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT):
Now, subtract the total production cost from the total revenue:
EBIT=1,186.96 million $−744 million $=442.96 million $ over 10 years\text{EBIT} = 1,186.96 \, \text{million \$} - 744 \, \text{million \$} = 442.96 \, \text{million \$ over 10 years}EBIT=1,186.96million $−744million $=442.96million $ over 10 yearsAnnual EBIT=442.9610=44.296 million $ per year\text{Annual EBIT} = \frac{442.96}{10} = 44.296 \, \text{million \$ per year}Annual EBIT=10442.96=44.296million $ per year4. Net Income:
Assuming a 20% tax rate, the net income would be:
Net Income=44.296 million $×(1−0.2)=35.4368 million $ per year\text{Net Income} = 44.296 \, \text{million \$} \times (1 - 0.2) = 35.4368 \, \text{million \$ per year}Net Income=44.296million $×(1−0.2)=35.4368million $ per year5. Target Market Capitalization:
With a P/E ratio of 10, the market capitalization based on earnings would be:
Market Cap=35.4368 million $×10=354.368 million $\text{Market Cap} = 35.4368 \, \text{million \$} \times 10 = 354.368 \, \text{million \$}
Market Cap=35.4368million $×10=354.368million $ = 513million AUD$ + infrastructure + future resources for development = from 600 to 800m AUD$ market cap.6. Stock Price Estimate:
Using the number of shares outstanding from the report (
3.18 billion shares as of 2024, the estimated stock price would be:
Stock Price=354.368 million $3.18 billion shares≈0.111 $ per share\text{Stock Price} = \frac{354.368 \, \text{million \$}}{3.18 \, \text{billion shares}} \approx 0.111 \, \text{\$ per share}Stock Price=3.18billion shares354.368million $≈0.111$ per shareConclusion:
If Peninsula Energy achieves its production targets, and uranium prices evolve as described (with a P/E ratio of 10), the stock price could be approximately
US$0.11 or 0,16 AUD$ per share based on these earnings assumptions.
(20min delay)