Thought I'd start a new thread here to get people's thoughts on what CYL's market cap should look like in 12 months from now. I know there's already been some good analysis from a few people on various other threads so it would be good to consolidate them here and get other opinions/calcs.
FWIW, I come up with a Mkt Cap of $2.07bn.
My assumptions are :
1. Plutonic production rate increase from 7koz/month to 11koz/month (driven by 1.3koz/mth each from Plutonic East, in mine Plutonic, K2)
2. Monthly costs at Plutonic increase by 20% from $15.6m to $18.5m (it is largely fixed price operation)
3. Henty production continues to produce at rate of 2.2koz/month
4. Monthly costs at Henty stay at $5.8m
5. POG at AUD 4600
6. CYL will have accumulated $200m in cash
7. Valuation based on ASX Gold co industry average of EV/EBITDA ratio of 4.3
8. 220m shares on issue
Using these assumptions :
Total monthly production total is 11+2.2 =13.2koz.
Monthly costs are 18.5 + 5.8 = $24.3m
AISC = $24.3m/13.2 = AUD 1840
Monthly profit = 13200 * (4600-1840) = $36.4m
Annualised profit = 36.4 * 12 = $436m
EV = $436 * 4.3 = $1.87 bn
Add cash in hand to determine Mkt Cap
Market Cap = $1870 + 200m = $2.07bn
Share price = 2070/220 = $9.41
Lets see how close/far off that turns out to be!
Please feel free to critique assumptions, show your own calcs/thoughts etc... would be good to review in 12 months and see where it ended up.
Nearest the pin gets a nice bottle of red!
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CYL
catalyst metals limited
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Market Cap in 12 months
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Last
$8.22 |
Change
0.400(5.12%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.090B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$7.84 | $8.32 | $7.77 | $19.38M | 2.375M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 500 | $8.22 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$8.25 | 900 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 500 | 8.220 |
1 | 61 | 8.200 |
3 | 17288 | 8.190 |
1 | 5469 | 8.170 |
1 | 499 | 8.010 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
8.250 | 900 | 1 |
8.280 | 5000 | 1 |
8.290 | 10000 | 1 |
8.300 | 12967 | 4 |
8.310 | 12473 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 09/09/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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CYL (ASX) Chart |