Hi GLBiotech investing is VERY risky - anything can go wrong at...

Hi GL

Biotech investing is VERY risky - anything can go wrong at any time. If and when something goes wrong - the stock could plummet heaps - and by heaps i mean heaps. Fore example (ONLY an example - again ONLY an example) - if a clinical trial patient of any biotech company gets seriously ill after treatment - due to some side effect, known or unknown - the company can pretty much get from 100 to zilch in no time.

Hence Biotech investing is not for everyone and people shouldnt bet their houses on it.

TIS though is a seperate story altogether. Simplest of market caps (10% revenues from a partner who gets 10% of the market share multiplied 10 P/E) would peg TIS at a market cap above 550 million dollars. And that is a reasonably pessimistic calculation.

The reason why the market cap currently is a 10th of that is because its a Biotech and "anything can go wrong at any time" and ofcourse because we currently dont have a partner to take this to market.

Other reasons

- Low liquidity means no serious investors with deep pockets can enter with ease

- Not even in the ASX 300 so funds with strict investing strategies "cannot" invest in it.

- Considering that USA is the largest Pharma market, and a lot of developing nations consider FDA approval necessary, TIS still has about 3+ years before getting FDA approval. So still a while to go before it can get to a Billion + market cap. And lots can go wrong during that.

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Some great things though:

- Patents - The more the patents, the better positioned a company is. Patents mean that only the holder gets an exclusive license to develop the formula for 20 years - 20 LONNNGGGG Years - This is a HUGE plus for TIS. They have secured and continue to secure more and more patents.

- Cash in Hand - even if something did go wrong or get delayed, TIS has enough cash for another Year atleast

- Final stages of Trials in markets except USA.

Above are only a few reasons - i would still consider today's 44 cent price a throwaway and as much as i know this will exceed a dollar in a few months, i will not bet my house because its a Biotech and because i believe in reasonable levels of risk management (my best mate reminded me of it today).Though i am almost certain that TIS will be a great Aussie Story and that too very very soon.

Th