I think Eagle0 makes a good call on his valuation after Ph 2 success. Not all 4 indications may be successful (though the evidence suggests a strong likelihood) . But these 4 indications aren't the finish line. Neuren has already stated they see many other conditions where the drug may be applicable. Their patent for Autism is one example, and I don't think treatment for TBI (traumatic brain injury) is off the table either (Neuren started with TBI with Trof in earlier days, but then sensibly pivoted to Orphan drugs as an easier way to get to market).
If NNZ-2591 is successful in several indications (e.g. 2-3 of the 4 trials planned) then its potential for many other indications will be an obvious conclusion. At that point, the value of NNZ-2591 theoretically won't be based on just the current Ph 2 indications, but on potentially far larger markets for many others including Autism, TBI, Stroke, Alzheimers and Parkinsons.
In summary, if NNZ-2591 is successful in multiple Ph 2 trials then we may truly have the "aspirin for the brain" blockbuster drug Neuren Chief Science Officer Larry Glass has referred to. This has always I believe been Neuren's long term strategy - Orphan drugs are just a step on this journey.
Refer to the below quote from Larry Glass's presentation in 2013 (he was CEO at that point) (
https://www.neurenpharma.com/irm/PDF/30830bcf-b2d3-45b1-8b82-f2970af37f85/CEOPresentationtoAGM)
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"NNZ-2566 addresses critical pathology underlying many acute and chronic CNS conditions and disorders. What’s important is that we’re directly targeting core aspects of the biology of these disorders, not just symptoms. At the cellular and molecular level, the pathology that NNZ-2566 targets includes inflammation, dysregulation of microglia which play a major role in maintenance of the connections between neurons, impaired communication between neurons called “synaptic plasticity”, loss of neurons due to programmed cell death or apoptosis and abnormal electrical activity that often manifests as convulsive or non-convulsive seizures. These pathologies are primary features of many acute and chronic CNS conditions including TBI, stroke, neurodevelopmental disorders such as Rett and Fragile X Syndromes and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease and even so-called “normal” aging. More and more, NNZ-2566 seems to be one molecule that can potentially treat a wide range of poorly treated CNS conditions at the level of disease causation. By analogy, aspirin treats pain, inflammation and fever regardless of the aetiology – a sinus infection, a strained back, osteoarthritis – because its mechanism of action targets a common pathological phenomenon. Some individuals have taken to calling NNZ-2566, “aspirin for the brain”. "
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Note NNZ-2566 is trofinitide, and NNZ-2591 is a more effective version of NNZ-2566.
It goes without saying that the potential markets for treating Autism, TBI, Stroke, Alzheimers and Parkinsons are orders of magnitude larger than those for the currently targeted indications.
(20min delay)