Actually, I get the feeling that everyone knew the result before...

Actually, I get the feeling that everyone knew the result before it came out and this is a classic sell the rumour,buy the fact.

Without ATM reform, CUS should make about $12 mill a year before maintenance capex and tax D and A...in other words its quite profitable on lower volumes and without ATM reform. The reason I haven't included maintenance capex into my numbers is that it is one of the fixed costs that is highly dependant on two things: technology and economies of scale. Technology relates to the advances in technology that have allowed repair of machines to become more "DIY" in the last 2 years with modular mechanics, and also due to increases in reliability of the Triton Machine. Economies of scale speaks for itself..the more machines you spread the fixed costs over, the cheaper the cost per machine it becomes...pretty obvious. I am going for a charge of approx $400 pa per machine, but thats a bit of a guess.

On another note, I don't know whether anyone else picked this up but their capex for the first half was quite high, and I understand some of this relates to a bulk purchase of about 500 machines. Now, why would you buy 500 machines in advance unless you intended to roll them out? That would put them on 5700 machines and lends weight to their "largest ATM network in Australia" comment that they made in their report.

The downside risks are still relating to the ATM reform deadline being pushed out by the banks, but at these prices they have well and truly priced that risk in. I think that over the next month or so, CUS will slowly pick up to 15c or so.