profits will more than double. At the moment they make about 36c...

profits will more than double. At the moment they make about 36c per transaction after paying the interchange fee and retail rebates but before corporate overheads and maintenence capex, tax, and d & a.

Post ATM reform and assuming a rate of $1.75 per transaction, they should make approx $1.20 per transaction as ebitda. That's a 350% increase. We also need to assume that they will see a drop in volume of about 7% per machine but I also think they will have 10% more machines out in the field by then so one will cancel out the other.
To cut a long story short, assume D & A of $16 mill pa, interest of $10 mill (including bailment costs) and tax at 30% and you have an NPAT of $55 mill or 4.4cps or 53c at 12x p/e.

PS.
I actually think that the ATM charge of $1.75 will be closer to $2.00 which is in line with what the banks are ALREADY charging for foreign ATM transactions ie Wespac card being used in a CBA machine.In which case, the above number goes to $69.95 mill or 5.6cps or 67.2c at 12x p/e

PPS. Don't dismiss corporate appeal either...this network is worth a bit to the banks ...as is Cashcard.