Being one long-term SH holding several decent parcels, I'm of the opinion that waiting patiently for the impending positive news to unfold is the best strategy to take right now.
It's unbelievable to see the SP down at these levels and funny to note that even the most rampant IAM critics on these forums are publicly stating they're looking for an entry around 1.0c - so clearly they themselves see the potential for a bounce in the near-term (or better still, they actually believe in the story long-term - but won't admit it).
I think if we put all the emotion aside for a minute (clearly hard to do with so much negativity on HC) and focus on the fact that should management be able to post similar QoQ growth as last QTR, we will see cash receipts coming in at around $300k or so in the Sept 4C. Repeat that growth rate in the Dec QTR, which I believe is both realistic and likely to achieve at this stage of growth - realistically, 50% growth rates should be a minimum at this early stage - and we should be sitting around $450k of receipts next quarter.
Given that we're currently sitting on a per-QTR cash burn of ~$500k ($650k forecasted for the Sept 4C, with higher than usual costs for software development etc.), that means that even given some reasonable increase in expenses over the coming few quarters, given staffing headcount increases and potentially, I would expect that we'll be cash-flow positive in the next 2-3 quarters.
Forgetting the disappointing SP at present, and putting aside the performance milestones as being the "holy grail" for IAM and SH's, IMHO it's not that difficult to comprehend that the business is still very much heading in the right direction and poised for success within the next 2-3 quarters.
Apologies that I haven't shared detailed forecasts to support these assumptions, but I will do so in the coming weeks.
All of this is only IMO and is clearly speculative, but at the end of the day, you either believe the story behind this company, or you don't. I, for one, believe that IAM management have SH's best interests at heart, and will eventually build a brilliant business. Having built several companies from start-up myself, I realise first-hand that success - that is both scalable and long-term - does not happen in a matter of 12-18 months.
As PC said this week via Twitter, truly successful start-ups are a not a walk in the park - they're a daily grind for the most part. IAM is no different and to expect such, is being unrealistic.
IAM Price at posting:
1.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
