Total estimated market in Australia and major markets is ~33,000 patients a year (and growing with aging population).
The retail cost of CVac is unknown, but there have been figures of $70-90k per course bandied about, so let's use that.
Even if we only get a conservative 10% of the potential market, the revenue is already over twice as much as the current market cap (and we're significantly de-risked since last at these levels) = $231M @$70k or @297M @ $90k.
Remember, that's just 10% of Australia and the majors.
It's a market who's needs are not currently being met and CVac has orphan status with no competition in the near future.
So it's my view that 10% is very conservative.
As for profit, cost of goods is likely to be well below 50% revenue (immunotherapy average is lower).
Provenge is a more expensive process and they're aiming to get theirs down to 20 or 30%.
If they can achieve that, CVac can better it.
I'll let you do your own sums to work out what that results in...
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