Just a Friday evening synopsis of my thoughts; (please forgive my philosophical bent)
Holding any stock is rather like having a relationship with someone. Over time, you realise the person is far from perfect, but instead is an amalgamation of negatives and positives. Similarly, since buying into Intiger since July 2015 (RSL days), I have learnt plenty about it's negatives and positives.
Negatives
- NAB debacle. Management's inexperience in ASX showed through here. It was tinged with a Patrick Canion "overwillingness to please" approach. It was disappointing, but showed that management was aiming high. Something about it gave me a good feeling about things to come. The last we were informed were that talks were ongoing.
- Sentry fizzled out with little communication.
- Mark Rantall came and then left a few months later, leaving for Countplus. Whilst his departure should have been deemed a negative, it was possibly a positive in hindsight as it appeared he was instrumental in the subsequent pilot deal between Countplus and Intiger.
- Matt Walker sold all (nearly all?) of his shares in Intiger even after the CBA pilot was announced. This was a concerning sign.
- But was his selling an emotional reaction to being hustled out from the board of directors? Sonu Cheema followed shortly afterwards, thus ending the Cicero connection. (maybe this was a positive as Cicero seemed poorly placed to carry the baton, and were probably instrumental in the failed NAB deal communication).
- Mark Fisher's health has failed recently. This is a negative sign, and I speculate that he could have been going 'too hard and too fast' in efforts to reach milestones. I could be wrong.
- Communication has become increasingly nonsensical and shallow. Examples of 'nonsensical' is the variable use of the word 'AI' and 'automation', a discrepancy between when and if the whole BOOM2 and fully functioning game-changing LILLY is incorporated into the business model or not....examples of 'shallow' are minimal communication with a wishy washy, blasé positivity about Intiger's direction without accepting the missed milestones and faltering direction.
- Patrick Canion seems eager to please, but lacks a forthrightness in honesty of communication. It's pretty obvious.
- Laughable quarterly cash receipts
- "We don't need to do a cash raise' as stated in podcast with conviction, followed by a capital raise 18 months later.
- No shareholder knows the game changing ability of LILLY, and thus the full potential effects of Intiger in 'revolutionising the financial industry'. There seems to an element of secrecy here, which is understandable.
- Closure of office and release of staff. Maybe this was necessary given the reduced reliance on humans, and increased use of back office 'automation and digitisation'?
- No mention of Financial Wisdom or Countplus in recent quarterly.
Positives
- Positive work environment in Philippines (from all accounts)
- Repeated statements of positivity from management (if rather wishy washy and blasé
- CBA pilot has been reported as thus far productive
- Mark Fisher steel like insistence that Intiger is the "right solution at the right time...at a time of perfect industry storm".
- A major positive for me is that Intiger has only just incorporated it's game changing product into the business model.
- "They're queuing out of the door"...."The product speaks for itself"...."we don't need to market this"..."we are not just building a company, we are building a whole new industry".
I've not given an exhaustive list of negatives. There are plenty more. But, none of these negatives are 'deal breakers' for me.
I find it hard to believe that, the need for Intiger's unique "game changing product", is suddenly not this, and a complete dud and that the need has suddenly evaporated. It wouldn't make sense. And it's only just being unleashed.
Yes, plenty of negative stuff has happened, but why should we be surprised? It's a relationship, after all.
I'm not ready to dump this girl as she's not done enough wrong yet, and has some clear positives.
I will continue to hold because I do think it'll be a success.
