It's a very good read. These guys sound cautiously optimistic, but on longer term technicals only. They clearly believe we are in dangerous territory based on history and fundamentals.
Great time to review portfolios as they mentioned. Trim the fat, stay nimble and if that uptrend fails then just be prepared for a 30-40% hit to equity valuations over subsequent months.
If we push back into ATHs again then I can see the S&P potentially putting on another 100-200 points, but this will only make the fall more violent.
In the background you have the Fed looking to normalise rates (extra pressure now from CPI indications) plus unwind the balance sheet towards 50b / month (effectively acting like additional rate hikes by reducing money supply) all in order to give themselves ammo for the next crash / recession. A question that has come up by several commentators is this - how do you prepre for the next recession without causing the recession you are preparing for?
RSG Price at posting:
$1.15 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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