market overview, page-7

Agree with practically all that except that the markets will go higher.

As per my previous post/s, when you have parity between the yields of 2 year US Treasury notes and the average dividend yield on the S&P 500 after the US market has been goosed to the extent it has since Trump, and you still have rising interest rate expectations, the market has no room left to run.

Best we could expect is a double top and what we just saw was not a flash crash, it was an orchestrated letting off of steam IMO. The market has been controlled, while the goosing has been happening, by volatility supressing robots. Someone decided to turn the suppressors off to see what happens. It looks like they might be back on now but not enough time has elapsed to properly know IMO.

The bounce looks to be running out of steam. If the market comes to the realisation that the direction is now down it will become a self fulfilling cycle of selling. None of the warning bell chart signals have been reached yet because the Trump rally ran so hard that even the record one day falls, we have just witnessed, aren't enough to enliven bona fide sell signals in the charts. It's just part and parcel of the multitude of unusual market behaviours we have seen since the 2300 level broke on the S&P500. I've mentioned before the amount of time the indexes were able to keep rising while in deep overbought territory since the end of Sept last year. Unheard of behaviour.

But once the top (or double top) starts to show real signs of having properly rolled over the market psychology and sentiment will change. The talk and the spotlight will revert to risk weighted value and where to find it. That's when real market discovery begins and when we will find a genuine level IMO. I thought the market was a bubble at 2300 on the S&P500. The Trump rally was protectionist, inflationary, political and dubious from the start given the continuing escalation in national debt. Mean reversion is in play now IMO and I can see 2300 on the S&P500 within a 18 to 24 months. There is my prediction.Esh