market response to a pullout on pes, page-11

hardmano,
i am still hoping that AOE/Shell come back and top BG - but as every minute ticks by, I become less confident.

The drop-dead time is 19.22pm tonight.

I guess AOE/Shell can announce a new bid up to that time.
As long as the market price is above the $8.00 BG bid level, then AOE lose nothing by waiting till the last minute.
But they MUST get those PES/large s/h parcels - so they MUST bid before that 19.22 deadline IMO.

AOE only need to find cash for 59% of the PES shares - thats only 73m PES shares. So if they offer say $4.50 cash thats only $328m cash, plus say 1.75 AOE shares at $2.50 thats a total of $8.87 per PES share.
Thats a hell of a lot better than $8.00 cash.

For Shell to assist, i reckon the easiest way is for AOE to make a placement at say $3.50 up to 14.99% of AOE - which I would think Shell would grab. That would put a floor under AOE sp.

If Shell wants 30% of PES permits, it cannot buy them as part of the PES t/over - it must be a seperate, unrelated transaction. It would probably need an independent valuation (no trouble there).

Or another way, would be for Shell to stand in market for AOE shares at say $3.50.

The question now for PES s/h is whether to sell on market at $8.14, or hope for another bid????