market revaluation 40 cent to 60 cents possible., page-15

I had a long think about your view about the foreign exchange gain which you suggest could offset a falling gold price. Any foreign exchange benefit will likely be offset by a larger fall in the gold price which I will explain why below. The key is likely.

World gold production
2008 2, 280 tons gold $1300 usd ounce
2018 3,380 tons gold $1400 usd ounce *market very bearish and over supply.
2022 3,700 tons gold price $2050 usd ounce (covid,, inflation lift.)

Now gold trading around $1700 triggered by the US fighting inflation and heading to a deflationary environment. Interest rates rise and the stock markets revalues. Market fears are causing an exit from gold and buying usd as a safe haven.

Synchronized fall in demand and increasing supply
The rise in rates is causing a recession which will result in a fall in the gold price and a domestic liquidation of gold assets with a decrease in demand. This will cause increased supply and decreased demand in synchrony.

Foreign exchange gains wiped out eventually.
The effect of a higher USD results in technically lowering cash mining cost around the world and therefore requires gold to go lower in USD to really slow supply. In other words the foreign exchange gain will be wiped out.

The million dollar question. How much will gold consumption fall in a recession. Lets say 30%, that would immediately add 1000 tons of surplus onto the market. Then we have to also assume people will liquidate some gold assets. you could have 2000 tons of surplus hit the market within 6 months.