RMS is still in transitional stage, I thought it had further potential. I eventually realized much of the gold price over 10 years was driven by inflation. When the Fed announced it was going to raise interest rates I should have exited.
The effect the Fed effect had on the gold price occurred so fast it was too late to exit. My goal was to be a long term holder for RMS.
This is where I see we are now.
1. The return on investment in the bank will increase,
2 Higher expected returns in the asx will require higher returns in resources.
3 The cost and capital loss from holding transitional mines is too great without any solid comparative return, you could loose 24% of capital in an erratic market with high inflation over a 4yr period waiting for a mine to be developed.
4. The financial cost of starting new mines is increasing which reduces long term capital gain.
5. Hyper inflated resources will result in a flooded market as marginal produces become productive.
6 In 2008 I did refer to resources boom as hyper inflation but I was told hyper inflation only refers to the economy as whole.
Last time commodities prices were not passed onto consumers because we had a GFC and commodities correction. This time its different because its supply chain driven.
7 The deflationary goals of government will drive the gold price lower and create a price shock in all commodities.
8 After the correction and commodity prices return to normal there will likely be another global bailout.
9 Some of the gold price support will be based on international conflict which is starting to come under control.
Summary
I believe gold has been held up by war, inflation, covid, currency instability, bitcoin failure and now a shift to more stable investments.
I see gold falling as the Fed raise rates followed by a resource correction which could take some time.
I see a likely recovery if there is another stimulus. I fear a great depression and a world war.
Depending on the time frame. If RMS can have a new mine up and running in 2 years the timing might be right.
It comes down to finance and risk.
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