Agree markets are not logical - my point is the gold price is rigged to mirror inflation over the long term and deliver big profits to the main players by the manipulation. That tells me alone $1200 USD is out of the question. I don't see it below $1500 in a recession.
I do not see inflation coming down any time soon. The genie is out of the bottle and costs may stabilise but I doubt they will decrease significantly.
As an example there's an imminent bloodbath in the building industry here and the few left will charge what they like and inflating even further existing housing by shortages created.
You can quote cash costs as a measure of staying afloat but as I look at the AISC of Equinox in their latest presentation ( $1300- 1415 )they'd be under water and losing money at $1200 gold unless they'd hedged well. Losing big time and destroying their gross margins. Also their 3rd world mines in Brazil deliver lower costs to prop up their first world mines in the USA. If ever hyperinflation visits them like their pals over the border Equinox is toast.
I'm trying to imagine a world supply of gold suddenly flooded by Indian folks selling their stashes - and I can't. It'd be hoovered up by the Chinese as they wage their ongoing trade war with the West. That will not affect the price imo.
Summary
I don't see gold at $1200 US - but if it is I'll buy you a beer
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