market scepticism

I can perfectly understand the markets sceptism at the present time.

Yes the company has done a brilliant job in proving up 958 million tonnes so quickly ( probably a billion once the final 3 holes are drilled) and commencing discussions with MCC.

But the fact remains they are still a minnow trying to take on a notional $2.8 billion project, that will probably blow out to $3 billion plus. They currently have a couple of million in the bank.

The consolidation will tighten up the share registry greatly and you would expect the initial entry of the Chinese on or around this time.Given the sp i cant understand why they are not already there.

But the market clearly wants to see how the project can credibly be financed. MCC have preliminarily indicated that they will organise a 70% debt funding package and also participate in the equity of the company. Based on a project cost of $3 billion there will be a need to raise $900 million in equity.
That is a massive undertaking.
With the backing of MCC and others im sure it can , but the equity dilution could be staggering.
Further ARH and MCC's ability to raise the required debt/equity, is going to be conditional on CITIC pushing the button on the establishment of the port and other shared essential infrastructure.
Until we see clarity as to how the project is to be credibly financed, i dont see any improvement at all in the share price.

Hopefully the results of the current talks in China will start to clarify at least some of these matters.