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25/03/16
12:30
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Originally posted by joewolf
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I don't agree about conspiracy.
This is no longer a cheap stock its market cap is 200 million. It has had a huge run up and may to many seem stalled. Its not the same when a stock is 20c and probably a market cap of about $60 million an announcement at that point is a dramatic thing. At $200 million the company will in the not to distant future deliver around $20 million profit as a mature business and probably around $10 million as a growth business.
I think this transition is far to long for most investors - the early adopters they are in very early and often dont sell out before the overreach and the pull back. Look at Sirtex ( SRX) - I am amazed that earnings have increased each year for a very long time but the share keeps going up and down. The general trend is up but the patterns in between are not. I am not a chartist but I follow what they say.
Call it what you want momentum , hot stocks ... Time between events is the killer and it always overshoots to both sides - that's my opinion.
So what do we have here - a combination of holders who have held for a long time topping up more when they have cash it shoots to 1.13 on Sept 13 2015. Then it retreats in steady fashion. The high was over $330 million market cap.
So yes it has ticked a lot of boxes , yes I have invested but at the level of 58c fairly recently. I think at $200 million it reflects the present position but I would not be paying more than 75c until it hits the turnover buttons and I can see some trajectory into the future turnovers. Yes this could be a Disallowed or even more - I certainly hope it is - but I am not surprised that its stalled. Some will have left as they want to secure their gains , some will want to reduce risk. Some will even be realising losses.
This journey is and has a long way to go to become a mature profitable business and at this point it commands a significant market cap given it has no real turnover.
Its fairly priced in my view for the risk and reward...
So why is the audience so critical. Why should it move after every good announcement. The evidence of performance is coming and that performance at some point will fairly reflect value but at most other points it will either overshoot to both sides or meander.
Why are we fixated with share price - the value in this business lies in its future not in its share price today. I think management should be given a lot of credit to get it here and they should ignore the share price for 18 months and get the business to the next level.
Share price right now is only important to margin lending clients ( if it is even on the list?) those that want to or have to sell and buyers.
I quite like this period - I can accumulate and ignore the rest of the events whilst awaiting performance. This is - in my opinion - a good time to add a percentage to your holding to sell when it goes too high and trade the cycles. It's also a good time to invest. A classic of early adopters is that that often they have fired all their ammo and have to sit this period out. Be happy you can sit on your unrealised gains. they give you a far better buffer than I have.
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morning joe,
" At $200 million the company will in the not to distant future deliver around $20 million profit as a mature business and probably around $10 million as a growth business."
well, I hope you are right about that one ------------- the 10 million profit as a growth business will do me - I will be long gone.
Why?
Atlassin ---------- from memory - about $300 million revenue --------- and I think only $8 million profit (growth company).
Listed ----------------------- $8 BILLION.
Now - if AJX was equivilent ---------- that is 8 million profit - not even 10 million --------- and we got the 8 Billion gong - that would make with say 320 million shares ------------
$25.00 US per share
at 70 cents conversion =
$35.71 per Aussie share.
Hmmm - I will take some of that thanks
Pinto