yes, MBL had COE price target at just 20c back in Feb 2024.
Whilst the BMG decommissioning was big baggage and was overhanging the share price,
I still think that COE has some issues:
1. Orbost production - getting to name plate - that is obvious to all - but COE does not seem to be making any significant headway.
2. now the Indonesian litigation and claim against the former J/V partner is an issue, given they are on hook for 10% of decommissioning costs. If decomm costs are $280m, 10% is material to COE. PLUS I am sure COE would go for damages incl interest and other costs- because COE has been attempting to resolve this matter since COE purchased the permits. So $30m++ is material for COE.
3. the other matter that requires s/t resolution is the Otway development wells and project. Mitsui was trying to withdraw from otway, but now wants to remain. Mitsui is dragging its feet, and IMHO, is a lead weight around the project. COE says it is working to "align" the interests of the J/V partners. Delay to the drilling, and subsequent access to Annie gas will be costly to COE.
COE Price at posting:
23.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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