Unless a takeover occurs before we initiate this next phase of...

Unless a takeover occurs before we initiate this next phase of production, will additional debt be necessary to enhance our plants capacity?What volume of gas can we realistically allocate to Alinta Energy to supply as-available gas to the Bairnsdale Power Station?

Not much Bairnsdale can only generate 94 mw.

Should we secure a partner for VIC/P80 and VIC/L13, 14 & 15, our existing processing plants will require capital investments to upgrade the infrastructure.

Yes, in an ideal world but we've got 2.5 years until 2028 when the gas and electricity market will change substantially.

• Victoria’s production outlook has decreased since the 2023 VGPR, with less supply available from 2024
through to 2026. The total available gas supply is forecast to reduce by 48% over the outlook period, from
297 petajoules (PJ) in 2024 to 154 PJ in 2028.

– The stepped reduction in forecast production capacity is caused by a reduction in offshore field
production capacity in the Gippsland Basin, driven by the decline of the large legacy fields. The
Gippsland Basin Joint Venture (GBJV) has advised of planned closures of gas plants at Longford Gas
Plant, starting with Gas Plant 1 in July 2024, followed by Gas Plant 3 later in the decade, reducing
Longford’s maximum daily supply capacity to 700 terajoules per day (TJ/d) and then to 420 TJ/d.




That's a shortfall of 280 tj/d - this shortfall will be acutely felt during winter months, late Autumn and early Spring. From 2030 onwards the shortfall becomes more acute, something has to replace the loss of gas processing from Longford!

Further to this is the closure of Yallourn and Eraring Coal Power station in around 2028 - that's roughly 4000 mwh removed from the electricity market, gas powered generation will be crucial during winter due to shorter day-light hours across the south-east coast. The duck-curve during would become more steep, especially in winter.

I think Lochard Energy with their plans to make a gas power plant and battery storage facility and large Iona gas storage facility are doing the right things.

Unless a takeover occurs before we initiate this next phase of production, will additional debt be necessary to enhance our plants capacity?

From my understanding of the recent presentation, positive cash-flow will occur 2028. I think Management have the timing right to observe the market first and see how the proposed import terminals impact the evolving gas and power generation market and using increasing free cashflow to fund more capacity without a capital raise or drawing on more debt.

Rehabilitating Patricia-Baleen for gas storage is an excellent idea. Gas storage near the Victorian gas market is only going to go up in value with projected market conditions.