market thoughts

Market Report 26 April 2011

Monthly Ranges Summary

SPI - initially failed at 50% long and then set up a move to 75% short, look to be stuck for remainder of month- 4953/5033 worth watching
XJO - range bound IMO, so watch for 4948/5028
AUD - Completed to 75% and the 100% is at 1084
DJIA -shaky mid month and off recent low looks has now completed 75% with 12618 the 100%
SP - broke the 50% long level Friday so will either hug it for remainder of month or watch 1354/1374
USD - completed to 7% short with 7337 the 100%, any up move this month would possibly stop at 7512
DAX - short failed at the 50% level and now looks set to complete to 75% level at 7384/7509
FTSE - strangely range bound to the 50% level on both shorts and longs
GOLD - Completed nicely into the 100% and 1525 being the 127%
COPPER - 2 x 75% completion short and long by mid month which offered great trading
SILVER - Largest extension of a range since Nasdaq did so March 2000
OIL- Completion to 75% early in month and since has retraced and coming up again

Market Wrap

458 SQ
Market still tracking and after a non event earlier Im looking to Mid May


COPPER
Clearly its a bull flag, but there is a huge resistance line above and also a lower swing top, consolidate or to the mid line

DAX
Last week the suggestion was to go long here ? Because if it gets through the highs then we all know the perfect ranger that the dax is ?

DJIA
Simple is good here and really when you look at the above and then see current reporting season, is it a no brainer ?

SPI
Weekly ema and stochastic's are on the up, I guess the stand out here would be the 41 crossing above the 195ema ??

SPI
Daily ema looks great with gate system open to the long side and I guess confirmation would come if stochastic's turn up even though its more favourable from the lower line

FTSE
Gee its been struggling of late, and thats got to be a concern and shows how much they have relied on emerging market trading. Needs some of there own money back in the market I say

GOLD
And there is the 1500 and the 200% fib projection, Is it parabolic NO I don't think so. It will keep going until the USD bounces, look out when it does although safer here than silver ??

HK
I drew this some weeks back and thought NO, but buy it if it does ?? and it did

NASDAQ
The lower double top still haunts it, but most always break eventually ?? If markets do come off, this is where I might focus with heavier shorts. Its all about Apple LOL

OIL
First stop was 100, and who says it can't get to 120, sorry it has nothing to do with supply and demand

SP
The weekly here looks to stand out somewhat to the north side and is the blue box by mid may possible ?

SPI
Kept the same channel again here, to show the longer term bullish move which appears in the Price up and since April 2010 the consolidation. Still think this is a mirror image of the 87 aftermath

XDJ
Looks a little like the HK chart and really if it gets going then the low risk is the long side IMO

XEJ
Gee we have had fun with some stocks in this sector over the last month or so, are we going to show support on the horizontal now before continuing in the trend channel ?

XFJ
Mentioned this one to watch if the market kicks on and given its that time of year for the banks ?? Wants to get above the 195ema doesn't it ?

XGD
Had a great run, simple trend lines in place, if it fails to break the channel then mid line is possible

XHJ
Had some good focus here in recent times and price structure indicates why on a simple scale, if it breaks get on ??

XIJ
Little higher double bottom there, I don�t like how the stochastic's seem to be rolling over, maybe that customary double dip then go ?

XJO
If we ignore the data prior to the 09 low, then I see this as a perfect Time and Price set up and you just simply add heavily at the break on good volume ?? Trouble is you can't ignore the past LOL Horizontal look interesting

XMJ

The last spike here is all about BHP and I leave the thought to the individual, but put simply the best trade will be the IF it does go with

XNJ
Bullish ??

XPJ
Stuck in the Mud LOL
Reminds me of places that don't embrace change, face book did and look what happened ( PS i rarely use it )

XSJ
Wants to get going but still messy ?

XSO
Explains itself really and good gauge to a market retrace when they come around. Was the easiest way to see the March correction coming

XTJ
Watch it, traders especially

XUJ
Great little channel and recently off the support again



SWING Trading
Comments on charts

DAX

DJIA

FTSE

HK

NK

SP

XJO


Regards
Rob