My take on this announcement.
1. Major catastrophies at $830 million up to end of may. So does not include Christchurch earthquakes, chile volcano disruptions, flash flooding in nsw, tornadoes , bushfires and storms in US this month. Qbe has full year budget of $1.6 billion. If the catastrophes reach $1.6 billion, the insurance margin will be no more than 15% so potentially lower. So I would downgrade insurance margin target to 13 to 16% from 15 to 18%.
2. Estimate 1st half net profit of $666 million AUD on 1.1 billion shares equates to a EPS of 60 cents for 1st half which is significantly lower than estimates.
3. With the high AUD, I can't see further upside until at. Least the middle of 2012.
4. I believe fair price is now $16 to $16.50
market update, page-10
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$19.33 |
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Mkt cap ! $29.04B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $19.30 | $19.35 | $19.16 | $24.30M | 1.260M |
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| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | 403 | $19.33 |
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| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $19.34 | 1264 | 7 |
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