market update, page-69

Better to speak to East Coast farmers. Incitec has no presence over here on the West Coast.

There is some cheap fert landing in Oz but the main problem is everyone is holding off buying and that is logistically going to challenge how fertilizer can efficiently be transported in time should purchases be left to the death knock prior to planting. In order to put a ship together you need everyone's money upfront and for a 20,000t load that is around US$8mill. There is likely to be competition while the cheap imported inventories are around and following that likely to see prices rises because farmers will be forced to buy what is around. It won't take long to sell the cheap inventories if some companies have managed to speculatively bring into Oz.

Incitec will be fine in the longer term. Looked like a large over reaction to me today. No doubt a lot of longs were forced to close out today and could have been quite a bit of margin lending to fund those long positions?