It appears there has been some major buying and selling of AGI...

It appears there has been some major buying and selling of AGI shares on-market in the past few days. Things are coming to a head very quickly. The following is historically accessible public information drawn from widely available public share trading platforms.

Novomatic and AGI got themselves into court quick smart yesterday morning to kill off the scheme. In the process, attempting to avoid the disclosure of any formal evidence demonstrating the extent of the No vote. This suggests it was not a close contest between the No and Yes votes.

Monday saw what appeared to be Novomatic, put some big buy orders on the trading screens after the launch of their Alternate Takeover Bid late in the previous week. There was one big seller in the market who apparently waited until the scheme failed to sequentially sell several large parcels of shares.

The are only two large shareholders who in my opinion could legally be selling this large volume of stock in aggregate.
There have however been a few large buyers in the market in the past few days! Purchases of large volume sales have been split between buyers.

Novomatic appears to have picked up a few percent of shares according to their disclosure statements but other buyers not subject to disclosure obligations appear to independently have bought substantially more shares than Novomatic (Disclosure - I am not a buyer or seller at present). In other words, Novomatic don't seem to be making substantial progress toward their goal of getting to 75% of all issued shares. It might have something to do with being restricted to buying at $1.00 under the Transaction (Scheme) Implementation Deed?

After these large volume sales of the past few days, it seems as though one major holder has likely sold the entirety of, or almost all of their position.

It seems as though apart from a few shareholders, the vast majority of AGI shareholders are not amenable to a $1.00 offer.

The end result seems to be that;

- There is one less major shareholder on the register now.

- There are buyers in the market willing to pay more than $1.00 to acquire AGI stock.

- At least two unidentified buyers other than Novomatic have been building a significant shareholding in AGI.

- Novomatic is not acquiring the majority of the shares that are changing hands.

- Novomatic's plan to make a low ball offer to buy the remainder of AGI for $1.00 is looking very shaky.

- It is becoming increasingly difficult for Novomatic to get 75% shareholding in the near term, if at all.

- Any attempt at a Special Resolution by Novomatic to privatise the company will likely not succeed.