The reason nan has MC of 1 billion is the revenue model of...

The reason nan has MC of 1 billion is the revenue model of compounding growth and consumables. Right now NAN is getting I guess 10 or so dollars from 30 per cent of all endocavitary ultrasound performed in the US. From memory there is a 5 per cent per year growth in procedure volume per year. This volume is exclusive of high risk external ultrasound use with guidelines now recommending obligatory HLD. All guidelines are favouring automatic trackable which should phase out wipes predominantly used in Europe. Antigermix is an expensive minow without the necessary data to convince me it really works and is safe for the ultrasound probes. We have anticipated 5 yearly replacement cycle which will be accelerated by trophon 2. In financially challenged domains like the UK they can opt for pay as you go options which spreading the capital payments over years, which is fine.
In terms of market penetration we can extrapolate Australia a mature market with similar governance and cultural use of disinfection to the US. We have reached 70 per cent and still growing. I would anticipate the US to hit 70% of the 40k market potential. With Europe 40k and ROW 40k potential market. Europe is a bit different as they historically used wipes as apposed to OPA like the US so the change to a trophon is less compelling. Having said this their health authorities can be more authoritarian in implementing guidelines. Lets say we hit 30 per cent market penetration in 5 years. Japan is a massive market but cultural issues are hard to predict. I will guess 20 per cent ROW.
So I predict by 2023
48k trophons in sales (conquest and replacement)
3 k consumables per device ongoing....

Now lets add 2 more products with equivalent potential.