market value of far?, page-5

Hey Billdah and Plugged,

Thanks for the feedback. I had read so much about the 'Hardman success story' I thought I'd see what the parallels with FAR might be.

Re the potential downside (Sorry Plugged I know you don't want to discuss but Billdah does); in my opinion the impact of a withdrawal by Shell would just depend on the reason for the withdrawal.

Obviously if the reason was that the CSEM showed somehow that the seismic surveys were completely bollocks and there isn't enough oil down there for to keep a prius going for a month we're all in a lot of trouble.

If Shell withdrew because, although there is a lot of oil, they have prioritised other sites, I expect someone will step up quick smart to take their place, and take advantage of the CSEM data FAR will have obtained from Shell (and I expect they will have the right to divulge to anyone they choose).

On the other hand Shell might withdraw saying, "we'd love to drill but there is so much oil down there we'd need bigger ships". That would be pretty good.....

On the impact of the GFC Billdah; its been said before but the market is an anticipatory mechanism, so the market will value FAR based on where it expects the oil price to be a couple of years out, not on release of the CSEM results.

And Plugged is probably right about a takeover. I said the share price might enjoy a bit of a spike on good news then a rise over time to a realistic valuation towards spudding. But as Plugged pointed out, is spudding really the nail biting moment that it once was?, or is CSEM that accurate that the market will price it in well before drilling. And with the lesson learned from Hardman, there probably would be big players who would prefer to come in early and try to sweep us all off our feet with an offer 50% over what FAR is trading at a month or so after the news, but nothing like what they know it is really worth.

So in deciding what you will accept for your little (or large)parcel, run some figures first (as Plugged has done), that way you can maximise the "Brownie points with the Supreme Commander", the smug satisfaction from telling your boss to shove it, the size of your sailboat (that's mine) or the recovery from the shares you bought in TZL (mine too I'm afraid)......