market value vs potential value of esg

back of envelope numbers

the market value of ESG as per the STO takeover offer is currently standing at 998 X 0.90 = $900M approx

breaking ESG down into bits maybe gives us a clue as to where we stand with the current market valuation of 900M and the potential or speculative value

measurable(approx)

cash in bank(June 30) = 48.3M(76%)
Land (koorang Is.) = 19M(76%)
22.3% of OIP(0.035) = 1.25M
reserves - 1818pj(65%) 3p @($0.50/pj 3p) = 909M
wilga park
currently 10MW ramping up to 16MW(currently being installed)
65% ESG interest with 100% ownership of equipment
June Qtr revenue of $399,000(65% of $614,000)
increase by factor of 60% to allow for 16MW upgrade
= $638,000 qtr
=$2,552,000 per annum
with conservative p/e of 14 = $35M enterprise value
+ wilga plant and equipment = $5M

total measurable value = $1017M

= $1.02 per share

In other words, STO are getting $0.12 per share OR approx $117M worth of measurable and tangible asset for nothing as part of their $900M bid.

That's just the start of it

The in-tangible OR the unknown is where it gets interesting
for me

Pel 238 reserves

With upgrade to 3p lets say 40-80%

we get 727pj 3p - 1454pj 3p OR
in dollar terms at STO metric ($0.50 per pj 3p)
= $363M - $727M OR
$0.36 - $0.72 per share

Pel 6, 427, 428 resource(ESG operator)

although not certified the current prospective recoverable resource net to ESG is 2534pj

the unknown here is - what value should be placed on this if any?

I will be amazed if STO do not up their offer at some stage either with cash, higher ratio of scrip, or some sort of re-distribution of capital..