Today I've set out to understand the value the market is applying to the post-merged company.
If today's price is taken as the markets believe of what the combined company is valued at, then it is valuing the company at $18,620,123 (3103353867 x $0.006).
On face value this appears to be a very conservative estimate for the combined group. Is the market applying a higher risk that the merger wont go a head? To answer this question we'd have to know the operating revenue of the two.
I saw one article mention that Anywhere group alone is set to have revenues of $50m this year. I saw another artical that mentioned combined revenue $76m - which appears right, since $50m plus projected $26m for shopply seems about right - although i think shoply down graded their FY revenue to $19.
The article also suggests that the combined group is going to have $2m EBITDA. However a previous article suggested the Anwywhere Group with revenue of $50m will have $2m EBIDTA. So it looks like the $2 is for Anywhere and not the combined group.
So i think it's safe to say combined revenue for the post merger group is likely to be $69m with something inbetween 0-2m EBITDA. TBH i'm not sure how the losses of shoply will affect the overall group.
Here are some possible EBIDTA multiples for the current market capitalisation:
$2m - 9
$1m - 18
$0.5m - 36
So it appears the market might be expecting an EBITDA for the combined group between $0.5 and $1
Is it reasonable that the SHPs losses will be restricted to the pre-merged entity? I think given the experience of the Anyware managers, those losses are set to slide and increased profitability will be the result in FY17.
I was thinking of selling, but i now think it is prudent to hold, because whilst we are all expecting performance to be average FY16, i think the combined group can turn it around for FY17. We should know by December how significant this turn around is going to be.
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1.1¢ |
Change
-0.001(4.35%) |
Mkt cap ! $3.290M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
1.1¢ | 1.1¢ | 1.1¢ | $326 | 29.63K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 45632 | 1.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.1¢ | 33587 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 45632 | 0.010 |
3 | 390000 | 0.009 |
4 | 680000 | 0.008 |
2 | 230000 | 0.007 |
1 | 250000 | 0.006 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.011 | 33587 | 1 |
0.012 | 50000 | 2 |
0.013 | 82785 | 2 |
0.014 | 912966 | 1 |
0.015 | 500000 | 2 |
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