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    May 5, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT

    Silver pullback is a buying opportunity
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    JUPITER, Fla. (MarketWatch) ? How quickly the glorious springtime of silver turns into a winter of discontent. The selloff in silver saw the metal recently drop 20% from its highs, and we probably aren?t done yet.

    ? Relive May 6, 2010, 'flash crash' in real time 144391 But how low will silver /quotes/comstock/21e!f1:si\n11 SIN11 -2.13% go?

    Here are some forces that I?m watching:

    Bearish forces
    ?The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements on silver futures four times in two weeks. While margin requirements must go up when prices go up, four times in two weeks sure is grist for those who say the big banks are short silver and will do anything to derail silver?s bull run.

    ?Disappointment over silver?s failure to breach the psychologically important $50 level last week is also a factor. The hot money is moving on to other things for now. This leads to a correction, a normal and necessary part of any bull market.

    ?And then there?s simple profit taking ? many people bought silver at much lower levels and so they?re locking in gains. Certainly big funds run by George Soros and others are doing just that. And you know what, I told my subscribers to do that, too, because there?s nothing wrong with taking profits. Silver, gold hit by report of Soros selling.

    Bullish forces
    Those short-term bearish forces, though, overlay these longer-term, bullish forces:

    ?Industrial demand for silver is enormous. Nearly 75% of the world?s silver supply is used to make everything from chemical reagents to jewelry to solar panels to plasma TVs. And with the global economy expected to grow by 4.5% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund?s latest figures, that industrial demand for silver is only going to increase.

    ?The decline in the U.S. dollar is threatening to turn into a collapse. The buck recently touched its lowest level against the euro since December 2009, and the U.S. Dollar Index /quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 DXY -0.26% was recently off 7.5% just in 2011. For a currency, that?s a huge move! Since silver ? as well as gold and other commodities ? are priced in dollars, they generally move opposite to the greenback. It?s what I call the ?seesaw of pain? ? somebody?s always getting hurt.

    ?Mine supply of silver is tight. While silver fabrication demand grew by 12.8% last year, silver mine production rose by only 2.5%, and mine supply accounts for 70% of all silver supply, according to GFMS. It?s hard for miners to crank up silver production because two-third of silver produced by mines is as a byproduct to other metals. Mine supply IS expected to rise this year, but it will be hard-pressed to keep up with the expected rise in demand.

    The fundamental fact is that, despite the recent correction, both gold and silver are in big bull markets. Until that changes, pullbacks and corrections are buying opportunities.

    ?China syndrome?
    The big bullish story in silver is just one aspect of the demand shift we?re seeing to China and other emerging markets. China used to be a major seller of silver supply into the global market; now it?s an importer. And it?s importing more and more commodities of all types. China has a huge and growing middle class who want all the things that big, fat Americans want ? more food, cars, clothes and jewelry, TVs and other electronics.

    Click to Play Alternatives to gold and silverAs gold and silver tank, assets besides commodities can hedge against inflation, according to David Goerz of HighMark Capital Management, who recommends high-quality dividend-paying stocks as well as small caps.
    And it?s not just China. According to Goldman Sachs, 70 million people worldwide are joining the world?s middle class each year. In 20 years the middle class will add another 2 billion people, most of them from emerging markets. Many of these nations have a cultural affinity for gold and silver.

    So yes, we are seeing some air whoosh out of silver?s bubble. But I don?t think we?ve seen the real mania in silver yet. That doesn?t mean the metal can?t go lower. If the U.S. dollar rallies, that will likely trigger another leg down in silver. If the global economy slumps ? and there?s the potential for that due to stubbornly high oil prices ? that could knock silver lower as well.

    If you want to short silver in the face of strong demand ? like the 1.3 billion Chinese who seem ready to buy silver on the dips, or the billion people in India ready to do the same thing ? good luck to you. I think you?ll need it.

    As for me, I?m waiting for this silver correction to run its course, then I?ll buy again. A 50% retracement of gold?s recent bull run looks like a likely target, and a good place to re-enter the iShares Silver Trust /quotes/comstock/13*!slv/quotes/nls/slv SLV -0.66% , Silver Wheaton /quotes/comstock/13*!slw/quotes/nls/slw SLW -0.71% and other silver bellwethers.

    Good luck and good trades.

    Sean Brodrick is a natural resource analyst for Uncommon Wisdom Daily , the editor of Crisis Profit Hunter and the author of the book , ? The Ultimate Suburban Survivalist Guide .?
    /quotes/comstock/21e!f1:si\n11 Add SIN11 to portfolio SIN11 SILVER 5000 JUL1 3,547.00 ? -77.00 -2.13% Volume: 7,044May 5, 2011
    /quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 Add DXY to portfolio DXY US Dollar Index Future - Spot Price 74.00 -0.19 -0.26% Volume: 0.00May 5, 2011
    /quotes/comstock/13*!slv/quotes/nls/slv Add SLV to portfolio SLV iShares Silver Trust ETF $ 33.50 -0.22 -0.66% Volume: 291.83mMay 5, 2011
    /quotes/comstock/13*!slw/quotes/nls/slw Add SLW to portfolio SLW Silver Wheaton Corp. $ 34.90 -0.25 -0.71% Volume: 26.20mMay 5, 2011

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    ? ? Comments (269) Community Commons
    Jolux-III 6 hours ago+4 Votes Request sentNever accept what you hear or read at face value. Instead look for hidden agendas and self serving reasons that could have generated the articles no matter what paper or media published the information. Try to read between the lines and formulate your own judgment. Often people use the media to promote their stock and influence public opinion. Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse Goppeldanger 6 hours ago+3 Votes Request sentAnyone else getting 'page leap' today on here today...as in, it keeps jumping back to the top? Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse BayviewMortgageInc 4 hours ago+2 Votes Request sentso the writer of this story hasn't sold all his silver yet. so everyone buy so he can sell! Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse Serapis 4 hours ago+1 Vote Request sentConsidering depreciation of the dollar over time is right up there with death and taxes in terms of sure things, I'd say buying metals is a pretty sure thing so long as your time horizon is long enough. If you max out your credit cards to buy silver, no, probably not a good idea. If however, you divert some retirement money into physical silver, probably a good idea. In 20 or 30 years today's drop in silver will not even be a distant memory. Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse AmericanPatriot 4 hours ago+1 Vote Request sentHow'd that work out for those who bought silver in January 1980 at $50 an ounce with a long time horizon? Silver plunged 90% in price all the way down to $4 per ounce by 2001 and is now around $15 per ounce below its January 1980 high.

    Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse AmericanPatriot 4 hours ago+1 Vote Request sent"Might this be time to buy silver?"

    Nope. This is the time to BYE silver!


    Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse darkseid 3 hours ago+1 Vote Request sentTime to say BYE to that SLV ETF and speculators and BUY real silver. Premiums for the coins and bars have tripled while ETFs are below spot price and are becoming more lower than the spot price because people are now dicovering they don't have the actual metals to cover the shorts against these tools of speculation. I say good riddance to these speculators and let the REAL silver buyers grow in numbers.
    $4 an ounce? I miss those days and that is wishful thinking but even with that, I still won't be able to buy a coin because they will sell out quickly. Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse AmericanPatriot 3 hours ago+1 Vote Request sentYour "physical" silver just has a time lag in price adjustment to the actual spot price set by the markets. Anyone paying more than 5% over spot for "physical" silver is setting themselves up for huge percentage losses now and as silver continues its huge plunges ahead as it reverts to its mean of $8 per ounce.

    Link Report Abuse TerryC. 25 minutes ago0 Votes Request sent"silver continues its huge plunges ahead as it reverts to its mean of $8 per ounce."

    Before that occurs, the dollar will be worth zero, its intrinsic value. The U.S. will default on its debt in 2 to 5 years taking the dollar out with it. If another QE should occur, the dollar may be toast within a year. Either way, the dollars days are numbered. Link Report Abuse aglet 3 hours ago+2 Votes Request sentlove listening to the "know it all" extremists on this site - $8/oz ...........800$/oz who cares? - I think I'll just continue to stay diversified, sell on the peaks, and buy on the dips. I've been playing with "house" money for years that way. Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse wallsttrader 2 hours ago0 Votes Request sentIN market once you get the price action in either direction that feels very strong one just has to ride it with a tight stop loss and elevate it slowly.The biggest enemy is not to place the stop loss.Even if you are wrong the worst is you will be bailed out the best is not for me to say.ITS SIMPLE rest everything is commentary........Selling too early is another enemy.You dont do this for every stocks but stocks that are inflating or deflating Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse Nickoo 3 hours ago+3 Votes Request sentArticles like this are the reason I can no longer take this site seriously. I might as well turn on CNBC and complete the transfer of my wealth to wall street. Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse chalannnnn 3 hours ago+2 Votes Request sentI posted yesterday that today was the reversal on SLV ETF And SLV just kept getting cheaper and cheaper, a couple of things worked against my prediction, the technical bounce on the dollar temporary but enough to push silver lower, the increase of margins requirements and the continue drop of gold and other commodities along with still very heavy sellers, so I realize PMs are getting hated about know yet no more prediction from me on SLV. Too wild to call............


    Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse Geary0Aldrich 2 hours ago+1 Vote Request sentI never predict any change in any equity. I rode silver up with a stop in place. I am riding it down the same way. Gains in the last seven weeks are 150% It is always better to react to the price movements, than to predict the future. Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse dkaka 3 hours ago+2 Votes Request sentsilver is a poor person's metal--after this week people on margin are a lot poorer Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse AmericanPatriot 2 hours ago+1 Vote Request sentA lot of the players on the commodities markets using margins now have 100% or greater wipeouts of their money.

    Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse William 3 hours ago+2 Votes Request sentThe price of silver dropped 11% just today. Anyone buying it in paper or physical form is playing with fire. It looks to drop almost to $30, at least.

    The silver price was a panic on the way up, and now it is a panic on the way down. Proves one thing, that silver is not a safe investment. Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse AmericanPatriot 2 hours ago+1 Vote Request sentSilver has long been a dangerous and extremely volatile speculative game and hasn't been any sort of an "investment" for around 40 years.

    Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse AKelller 2 hours ago+1 Vote Request sentI'm laughing at all those people who told me to only hold physical. I rode SLV up for months, and sold very quickly when I realized this was turning into a rout. Meanwhile, those still in physical are slow to react to market moves.

    There's a time and place for physical. We weren't there yet. Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse Geary0Aldrich 2 hours ago0 Votes Request sentI agree, You need to be able to sell in seconds, not days. I like SIVR and PSLV. Link Report Abuse namedisplay 2 hours ago+2 Votes Request sentAnd look how easy it was to get out of your "paper" holdings. There's a liquid market for physical silver, but from the time you decide to sell to the time you actually get your money, there may not be that much money left to get. It's liquid alright, liquid to the point of dilution.

    And ya' notice how people just can't wait to trade in all of that priceless silver for worthless ole' dollars? People are scared now. Where do you think all of that capitol is going to go? Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse BABYBOOMER1946 2 hours ago+1 Vote Request sentwould be nice to know who,among all the commentators, is wealthy enough to be taken seriously Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse Longshorn 2 hours ago0 Votes Request sentNot sure, but I'm 17k wealthier after closing out my ZSL I bought Friday. Doubt silver goes much lower, especially as shorts close out positions before the weekend. I bought ZSL at the bottom, didn't sell at the top today (got stopped out with a tight stop), but I can sleep tonight! Lots of wealthy people I know get out "too early", no doubt those who sold out of SLV at 44 missed the last 10%, but aren't too disappointed nonetheless. Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse wallsttrader 2 hours ago0 Votes Request sentI did the same thing only much bigger Link Report Abuse wallsttrader 1 hour ago0 Votes Request sentNever listen to CNBC Experts or Newsletter or Marketwatch for expert opinions.Listen to CNBC in MUTE MODE.Recent studies reveal experts are wrong a staggering 95.5% in market predictions.Permabulls have a stake in their investment so they keep saying buy buy buy to the innocent masses while permabears get most of their money from speech and seminars so they keep saying sell sell or they work with Hedge funds who are short the market.Buyer Beware Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse ? ? ? ?
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