Hi Wary,
A couple of points and a couple more charts:
Re:
"This announcement was the exact time that the massive shorting and manipulation campaign against the company's share price started and it has continued unabated since then. This was before the general downturn in sentiment against the Li sector. It was GXY specific."
and
"
Only around the time we were told there would be no SdV joint venture had the sentiment towards the Li sector started to fall."
I don't disagree that there was some assault on the company's sp in this period.
But, the following charts indicate that this point (first POSCO sale announcement, 29th May 2018; indicated on each chart) was NOT the "start" of the drop. Look at the comparison in the charts - there was much similarity in SP performance between these 3 companies, whose share prices each peaked in Jan 2018, before all turning south.
The drop in sp, before or from that point of 29th May, does not appear to be in any way "GXY specific".
You seem to be suggesting/stating that "sentiment towards the lithium sector started to fall" in April 2019!!?? (you can see in the chart the large red volume spike that shows this date btw, about 3/4 the way along the x-axis)... again, sentiment was shot long before then!?
This first chart is GXY / PLS / ORE in % change:
This second chart is GXY / PLS / ORE in $$ share price:
"This announcement was the exact time that the massive shorting.."
But, shorters had already gone very hard well prior to this point (29th May 2018), stacking them on from January :
Whilst I do agree that there has been an assault on GXY stock via manipulation and shorting across this period, and I do think that we should have held up better than we have done, I'm sorry but there is not enough evidence from the data to convince me that anything to do with the announcements or company progress (or lack of) has had a material impact on the sp trajectory, or indeed that any of this price action has been GXY-specific in any major way.
The similarities of multiple Li company sp's is just too strong to make GXY stand out as being specifically and
significantly targeted, or for that matter, as a company being specifically and significantly "in control" of its sp fate in this period.
Having said that though, I do reckon we have likely had some level of "special attention" as an easy target to milk mums and dads of their investments. Should the POSCO $$ have helped to push us higher, being a MAJOR de-risking milestone and safety net? Absolutely I think so. I think the MMs were just too intent on driving the sp of multiple Li companies into the ground, for as long as the product prices and sentiment were pointing in the same direction, for them to even "bother" worrying about milestones/de-risking etc. Sharks on a mission. Unstoppable.
I also note that ORE has been shorted to buggery - circa 6% in Jan 2018 up to around 17% in Oct 2018.
Have these shorters helped to smash the share prices of these companies, and others? I reckon, yes!
Sector-wide assault and control in a grab for depressed assets and a chance to "milk it" via shorting and manipulation ?? Sounds like it to me.
When I boil down what I have available to look at, it appears to me that there was nothing that we could have done in this period (within our control and realistic given the market conditions) that would have had a material impact on this trajectory. That in itself doesn't excuse any crappy decisions or poor comms etc, just an observation.
One potential silver lining to this into the future, however, may be the fact that
the MMs stand to make much more money on the way back up.
Shorting from say $4 to $1 effectively yields a
75% return, but riding the long train from $1 to $4, on the other hand, makes for a
300% return.
Another reason, IMO, that I foresee a wild ride ahead, once the trigger gets pulled to signal the true turnaround. You just watch the tune change from every analyst and insto out there, they won't be giving SDV a value of zero or a measly $20m any more, that is for certain! They'll be the chief pumpers and relief will come quickly imo.
We'll see. As frustrating as it is, I can wait.
GL
