RSC 279kOz at 3.9g /t (2.2mt) RSV 140kOZ at 4.8 g/t (0.9mt)
pre-tax cash flow of $226m (undiscounted) over a period of 30 months at current spot gold prices (A$4,385/oz). Capital expenditure required to commence production of $5.4m is very low . NMG will utilise its substantial tax loss position (30-Sep-24: $84.4m in accumulated losses, $76.4m usable)1 to offset tax liabilities 140koz contained ounces of gold are to be mined and trucked to WGX over 30-month open pit. • Upside in potential underground mine below the pit, which will be studied in 202
Life of Mine CF - post tax at $4385 is A$186m extrapolating this.... $5000 is LOM CF(post tax) 225m & 5250 is $243m.
the bad news has 9.9B SOI so LoM Share price based on FCF is 243/9900 is 2.4 cents & they are trading at 1.9c (Ironically the FCF price at POG $4385 or 186/9900m)
I tend to only invest when I can calculate 4 - 5 x's multiples of current share price in FCF share price eg say 8c...
So this stock is already fairly well priced.
So how can it get bigger -
1. Ramp up production eg shift more gold Currently 30kt x 30 months or 1kt / month = 30 tons per day. More trucks to double or triple? Does WGX have capacity?
2. higher grades would need to see say 8g/t to double - todays finds could do this....
3. Build a plant This is expensive - A$200m CAPEX + licenses etc - could they do an initial crush only?
4. Takeover Hot sector - this could happen who is cashed up? RMS? WGX would likely love to buy.
So I have bought in based on likely 1 or 4 occuring
NMG Price at posting:
1.9¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)