massive iron ore price rise in 2008

i think some people need who post on here need to take a long cold shower, go back to school and read economics 101 and maybe get a day job as your ill-informed postings are ridiculous and hotcopper admins should really start monitoring this rubbish.

yes, the share price is getting battered. yes, there is risk in africa, debt financing and major mining/infrastructure developments. there is also risk in what FMG are doing in the pilbara and whether they meet their may deadline for ore shipments.

the facts remain that the massive iron ore price increases that will likely occur by the april deadline (though it may take until june) is likely to be in excess of 40% increase (though cvrd are seeking 70%).

take a cold shower those doomsayers. at the current spot price, let alone the futures price and/or any new price, this project (if jorc estimates etc are correct) is economically viable. what's more, if SDL can't get the cash from the banks, then i've little doubt the chinese steel mills, or sovereign backed investors would be delighted to finance it if not take out SDL for a paltry premium relative to its current paltry share price.

everyone needs to understand that the mining consolidation this is, and will likely continue to take place (read BHP/RIO et al) will mean the balance is in FAVOUR of the producers for the first time in history. the major iron ore producers namely BHP/RIO, CVRD and even throw FMG in the mix are more or less at ful capacity and are unlikely to massively increase supply in the short run and jeopardise future prices and the massive investments they've made in expanding capacity etc. i.e. they have a collective incentive to keep prices high and supply low (or at parity). therefore there will be massive interest in the non-cartel players (potentially an SDL etc) in particular for steel mills that seek to vertically integrate or at least control their iron ore supply.

yes there is risk with this project and the company, as with every other company listed on the asx, but this project as with every other mining project every conceived is by definition LONG TERM, so what happens over the course of 3 volitile weeks and some ridiculous comments on a gossip site is totally irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

i say keep selling SDL if you think it's so bad, as others will become exceedingly rich from your short sightedness.