Massive news coming, page-25

This is my first post. Firstly may I thank all the contributors for helping me evaluate this Company.

I am relatively new to biotech so I have a lot of catching up to do but I am attracted to MSB because it is a platform technology which appears to have widespread applications. I must admit with the historic high levels of cash burn and a complicated history of an aborted partnership with Teva and the discussions breaking   down with Mallinckrodt ...i was nearly put off...

but then I started to appreciate what an amazing opportunity MSB represents.

There are of course major risks. However, approvals in Japan followed by a 2 year track record in both paediatric and adult markets for GVHD,substantially reduces clinical risk in my mind. Meanwhile conclusion of phase 3 trials in the US for GVHD, means entry into the US markets is probably less than 12 months away. In my opinion, receipt of FDA approval for Remestemcel for paediatric use  would underwrite the current valuation whilst label extension to the adult market (3 times larger)for GVHD, leave substantial upside. I also note that orphan status for many treatment categories assures considerable barriers to entry and the harvesting methods of allfogenic stem cell production further reduce execution risk and provide for extremely high operating margins. I am surprised that hardly anyone mentions how MSB has insisted on a “futility risk analysis”  with “high hurdle rates” ( according to transcripts from analysts briefings) for its independent trials. This method of avoiding resources being wasted on unsuccessful drug development  also assures me as an investor that as we approach the latter stages of their phase 3 trials, for chronic low back pain and heart failure we are extremely well positioned.

As regards November 11th ... I believe a successful outcome from phase 2b trials will be followed over coming months by a global partnership deal which will totally derisk the balance sheet and hint at the exceptional value the shares represents. Many will buy to trade the announcement but my experience suggests that institutional investors react slowly to such news and you will have to wait a few weeks for the real impact. Bears often attack a share after good news to undermine investor confidence. Comments such as “the news is all in the price” etc., will be an example of such manipulation. In the background they will quietly be buying back aware that they could be wiped out when the share price builds momentum. 

I have seldom seen such a world class investment opportunity as Mesoblast. There is binary outcome risk but with successful clinical trials the shares could multiply 

exponentially. You only need to observe that this company once traded at 3 times its current value when it development pipeline was at a less mature stage to realise the inherent value. Good luck to all !