I hope some of the holders don't fall for: this will be higher...

I hope some of the holders don't fall for: this will be higher in the 2024/2040 sort of timeline. They have been incorrect from the start and I have no reason to believe this will be any different going forward.

There were people buying shares from me from 28C to 9.8 and I say Thank you.

There is no point shooting the messenger.

Remember to recover from a 50% loss, equity has to increase 100%. That is why Mr. Buffet has 2 rules for investing

1. Never lose money

2. Don't forget rule number one

If you follow my thread, I have been accurate and my only sin is not being even more bearish.

Based on the picture until last month

This company was undervalued. This is based on the

1. Cash and cash-like in the balance sheet

2. Loan book and growth

3. IP

4. M&A value (which is for me is a real possibility in the medium term)

4. Terminal Fed rate

However, things could be significantly dire:

1. If this is so undervalued, Management has not bought a single share. I agree with McKhenry that they are privy to information that we do not see. That worries me

2. This will be a terrible period for "discretionary lending" like cars and home renovations. I am expecting a potentially even negative growth print going forward. Already in the USA average home loan in the market has a 6 handle. Australia is not so dissimilar and how many people burrow to renovate at 10% interest rates. All the BBSW will be significantly higher in the next few months. We are at the beginning of the rate hiking cycle.

3. Just picture a growth company without growth. The market will punish this so much and you can probably get this under 6C.

Another point is as Jim Cramer says

I am not here to make friends but to make money. I wanted to educate people as much as possible because I feel most of my analyses do not deviate significantly from the eventual reality and I have made so much money discussing these topics in these forums. There are some brilliant analysis done by few people in HC.

The biggest issue with HC is that frequented by a bunch of bulls congratulating each other on how good this equity is. You ignore all the points to the contrary to 'feel good and correct" at material harm to yourself.

If you agree with my analysis and found this useful " hit the analysis button". Could not care less about the "like button".