Your numbers and analysis are definately sound and conservative,...

Your numbers and analysis are definately sound and conservative, time will tell but we will be winners here IMO based on the current SP with a strong degree of confidence.
There is many different variables that can be used to determine or forecast what’s going to happen, at the end of the day IMO any investment is a gamble, but I’m happy to be here for now and well into the future.
Another factor i’ve taken into play when forecasting my own numbers on IO is the hedge that FEX locked in, IMO hedges are never a one way street, and why I’m confident on both companies because the IO price is going to stay very strong regardless of the drop occurring atm, it will go back up again.
Up until end of September next year, I see the 62% fines AUD$230 hedge FEX signed for as being a fairly close estimate of the 12 month averages for the period. If this plays out as I believe, GWR will make well over the current MC, if not 2x the current MC.
But time will tell, all IMO and DYOR