[Master Thread] iM3 New York, page-266

Thank you for posting this Davelo.

There was one aspect that was interesting in the context of iM3NY and an earlier post of mine under the iM3NY Valuation string - in that, I used what external data I could find to estimate the selling price of the batteries ($ per kWh basis) to estimate revenues. What comes out of the above slides are two factors:

1. Reinforcing the superior energy density and recharging properties (as we are already very much aware of) of the iM3NY batteries - so that they can reasonably command a premium price.
2. For the first time that I have seen, putting a band around sales prices. On the slide "Repurposing and Recycling" they have stated an Upper Price Bank of $150/kWh and a Lower Price Band of $114.05/kWh.

This is very useful, as per my earlier post to try and estimate a possible market value for iM3NY on listing, I used $115/kWh. This new data suggests that a $130/kWh figure may be more realistic. Note all figures are USD.

So what does that mean?

At 1.8 Gigafactory capacity, this translates to estimated annual revenues of US$234m and at the planned first stage expansion to a 5 Gigafactory, estimated annual revenues rise to US$650m. Applying a 15% EBITDA margin (as I determined that other factories seem to be achieving), then we are talking potential EBITDA of US$35m rising to US$97.5m.

From a valuation perspective, I used the 30x to 45x EBITDA range that is being suggested as the value for spin-out float of LG Chem's battery division. Hence:

At 1.8 Gig: $35m x 45 = $1,575m. Value to MNS (63% shareholding of iM3NY) = US$992m @ 0.75 exchange rate = AU$1,323m or $1.50 per MNS share. Note that I used the 45x multiple because of the near term growth plan to a 5 Gigafactory scale and that growth will be likely factored into the valuation of iM3NY in establishing a value for listing later this calendar year.

As always, DYOR.